Results 151 to 160 of about 149,904 (230)

Forecasting Duration in High‐Frequency Financial Data Using a Self‐Exciting Flexible Residual Point Process

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self‐exciting flexible residual point process. High‐frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy‐tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge for accurate prediction.
Kyungsub Lee
wiley   +1 more source

Nonreciprocal buckling makes active filaments polyfunctional. [PDF]

open access: yesProc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Al-Izzi SC   +7 more
europepmc   +1 more source

MARS‐Diff: Guarded Residual Diffusion for Leakage‐Disciplined Probabilistic Portfolio‐Loss Forecasting

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper develops Masked Asset–Regime Scenario Diffusion (MARS‐Diff), a leakage‐disciplined framework for probabilistic forecasting of multiday portfolio losses. The framework combines a regularized heterogeneous autoregressive model with exogenous predictors (HAR‐X) as its anchor, a train‐only masked representation of a high‐dimensional ...
Çağlar Sözen, Mervenur Sözen
wiley   +1 more source

Risk Forecasting in Shipping Exchange‐Traded‐Fund (ETF) Markets

open access: yesInternational Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This article examines the risk properties of freight‐derivative‐based exchange‐traded funds (ETFs), focusing on the Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY), and evaluates the accuracy of Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasts across a range of econometric models.
Christos Katris   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

The Effects of Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom: New Evidence From SONIA Market Responses

open access: yesInternational Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper constructs a new measure of the UK monetary policy instrument (MPI) using daily changes in the sterling overnight index average (SONIA) around Bank of England policy events from June 1997 to August 2025. The instrument explicitly accounts for pre‐event information and unconventional monetary policy (UMP) using lagged macro‐financial
Ayobami E. Ilori, Lucia M. Murgia
wiley   +1 more source

An adaptive oppositional grey wolf optimizer for complex engineering problems. [PDF]

open access: yesSci Rep
Khalid OW   +7 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Time‐Frequency Market‐State Learning for Execution‐Aware Directional Prediction: Evidence From the CSI 300 Index

open access: yesInternational Studies of Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Financial markets can be viewed as multiscale information systems in which short‐lived disturbances, recurrent temporal patterns, liquidity conditions, and execution constraints jointly shape index price movements. This study develops an empirical‐wavelet‐and‐Fourier time‐frequency (EFT) feature block integrated with a ConvTransformer ...
Yi Chen, Ranzhe Jing, Qiang Li
wiley   +1 more source

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