Results 191 to 200 of about 2,982 (260)

Evaluating anisotropy‐based Monin–Obukhov similarity theory over canopies and complex terrain

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study shows that an anisotropy‐based generalization of Monin–Obukhov surface‐layer scaling (SC23) applies readily across a wide range of atmospheric conditions with variable terrain, canopies, and land‐cover complexity. This work focuses on the scaling of velocity variances for 7 years at the 47 sites in the National Ecological Observation Network
Tyler S. Waterman   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty quantification in weather and climate models

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties over time on weather and climate time‐scales, estimated through ensembles that sample aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty using Bayesian neural networks for parameterisations in the Lorenz 1996 model. The spread shows the 16th and 84th percentiles.
Laura A. Mansfield   +1 more
wiley   +1 more source

How interference between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the tropical Indo‐Pacific convection modulates wave trains along the subtropical jet: Impacts on the Asian winter climate

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study reveals that the combined effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and anomalous Indo‐Pacific Walker circulation on the excitation of the wave train along the wintertime subtropical jet strongly depend on their phase combination. Their impacts interfere constructively or destructively over South Asia, leading to notable differences in
Yuki Asazuma   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Ensemble reliability and the signal‐to‐noise paradox in ECMWF subseasonal forecasts

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We derive a general expression for the ratio of predictable components (RPC) in terms of correlation, spread–error ratio, and total variance ratio. Physical constraints on the admissible solutions (i.e., real‐valued and non‐negative variances) provide a mechanism to identify statistically paradoxical sample combinations of reliability and correlation ...
Christopher D. Roberts, Frederic Vitart
wiley   +1 more source

The role of mesoscale weather effects in simulating pyroconvection: A case study of the Santa Coloma de Queralt wildfire

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This large‐eddy simulation study on pyroconvection shows that the added value from resolving the mesoscale explicitly is found in the timing of pyrocumulus formation and circulation changes. The circulation of the convective plume itself is not substantially different between the simulations. Abstract Extreme wildfire events are characterised by strong
Koen van der Aa   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

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