Results 161 to 170 of about 1,415 (226)

Unifying Kibble-Zurek Mechanism in Weakly Driven Processes. [PDF]

Entropy (Basel)
Nazé P.
europepmc   +1 more source

Coherent Forecasting of Realized Volatility

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT The QLIKE loss function is the stylized favorite of the literature on volatility forecasting when it comes to out‐of‐sample evaluation and the state of the art model for realized volatility (RV) forecasting is the HAR model, which minimizes the squared error loss for in‐sample estimation of the parameters.
Marius Puke, Karsten Schweikert
wiley   +1 more source

Flips reveal the universal impact of memory on random explorations. [PDF]

Nat Commun
Brémont J, Régnier L, Barbier-Chebbah A, Voituriez R, Bénichou O.   +4 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Forecasting Count Data With Varying Dispersion: A Latent‐Variable Approach

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Count data, such as product sales and disease case counts, are common in business forecasting and many areas of science. Although the Poisson distribution is the best known model for such data, its use is severely limited by its assumption that the dispersion is a fixed function of the mean, which rarely holds in real‐world scenarios.
Easton Huch, Candace Berrett, Mason Ferlic, Kimberly F. Sellers   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Mathematical Models of Diffusion in Physiology. [PDF]

Physiol Res
Janáček J.
europepmc   +1 more source

Intraday Functional PCA Forecasting of Cryptocurrency Returns

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study the functional PCA (FPCA) forecasting method in application to functions of intraday returns on Bitcoin. We show that improved interval forecasts of future return functions are obtained when the conditional heteroscedasticity of return functions is taken into account.
Joann Jasiak, Cheng Zhong
wiley   +1 more source

Causal survival embeddings: Non-parametric counterfactual inference under right-censoring. [PDF]

Stat Methods Med Res
García Meixide C, Matabuena M.
europepmc   +1 more source

The Role of Price‐Volatility Cojumps in Volatility Forecasting

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether simultaneous jumps in prices and volatility improve volatility forecasting. Using up‐to‐date high‐frequency S&P 500 and VIX data, we identify price‐volatility cojumps at the intraday granularity and construct upside, downside, and asymmetric measures.
Kefu Liao
wiley   +1 more source

Numerical Modeling of Anisotropic Particle Diffusion through a Cylindrical Channel. [PDF]

Molecules
Cieśla M, Dybiec B, Krasowska M, Siwy Z, Strzelewicz A.   +4 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Quadratic Hedging of American Options Under GARCH Models

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT American options are widely traded in financial markets, yet there is a scarcity of literature on hedging in incomplete markets. In this paper, we derive optimal hedging ratios and option values using Local Risk Minimization (LRM) and Global Risk Minimization (GRM) hedging strategies through dynamic programming.
Junmei Ma, Chen Wang, Wei Xu
wiley   +1 more source