Results 161 to 170 of about 27,872 (253)

Optimal portfolio choice under loss aversion [PDF]

open access: green, 2000
Arjan Berkelaar, Roy Kouwenberg
openalex  

Optimal Variance Forecasting in a Trading Context

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT In financial trading, the economic value of return and variance forecasts arises from three key components: an investor's risk preference, the quality of return predictions, and the accuracy of risk estimates. This study isolates the third component—risk knowledge—and demonstrates that its contribution is a non‐linear function of realized and ...
Nick Taylor
wiley   +1 more source

When Are Statistical Forecast Gains Economically Relevant? Evidence From Bitcoin Returns

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study how statistical forecast gains for Bitcoin translate into trading profits. Using real‐time out‐of‐sample forecasts from daily bivariate VARs from October 2021 to February 2024, we show that Bitcoin returns are forecastable and that seven predictive indices yield significant gains in directional accuracy (DA).
Rehan Arain, Stephen Snudden
wiley   +1 more source

Psychological mechanisms of loss aversion: A drift-diffusion decomposition [PDF]

open access: green, 2020
Wenjia Joyce Zhao   +2 more
openalex   +1 more source

A Comparison of Realized Measures of Integrated Volatility: Price Duration‐ vs. Return‐Based Approaches

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study the accuracy of a variety of parametric price duration‐based realized variance estimators constructed via various financial duration models and compare their forecasting performance with the performance of various nonparametric return‐based realized variance estimators.
Björn Schulte‐Tillmann   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

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