Results 181 to 190 of about 331,204 (283)
Machine Learning Approaches to Forecast the Realized Volatility of Crude Oil Prices
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper presents an evaluation of the accuracy of machine learning (ML) techniques in forecasting the realized volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. We compare several ML algorithms, including regularization, regression trees, random forests, and neural networks, to several heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models ...
Talha Omer +3 more
wiley +1 more source
The dynamics of Spanish public debt and sustainable paths for fiscal consolidation [PDF]
This paper analyses possible patterns for the Spain debt-to-GDP ratio with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables (such as the US and French GDP growth rates, prices of raw materials, ECB monetary policy stance ...
Esposito, Piero +2 more
core +1 more source
A Deep Learning Framework for Forecasting Medium‐Term Covariance in Multiasset Portfolios
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Forecasting the covariance matrix of asset returns is central to portfolio construction, risk management, and asset pricing. However, most existing models struggle at medium‐term horizons, several weeks to months, where shifting market regimes and slower dynamics prevail.
Pedro Reis, Ana Paula Serra, João Gama
wiley +1 more source
Forecast Errors and the Macroeconomy: A Non-Linear Relationship? [PDF]
The paper analyses the reasons for departures from strong rationality of German business cycle forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions ...
Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche
core
Forecasting House Prices: The Role of Market Interconnectedness
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT While the existing research uncovers interconnections between various housing markets, it largely ignores the question of whether such linkages can improve house price predictions. To address this issue, we proceed in two steps. First, we forecast disaggregated house price growth rates from Australia and China to determine whether ...
Zac Chen +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters [PDF]
In the presence of principal-agent problems, published macroeconomic forecasts by professional economists may not measure expectations. Forecasters may use their forecasts in order to manipulate beliefs about their ability.
Owen Lamont
core
The Dollar's Double Life: Not All Dollar Appreciations Are Born Equal for the Cross‐Currency Basis
Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper revisits the relationship between the US dollar and cross‐currency basis (XCB) swap spreads. We show that the strength and direction of this relationship depend on the prevailing regime of the broad dollar. The evidence suggests that the well‐documented “dollar appreciates, basis widens” result holds primarily when the dollar is in ...
Daniel Felix Ahelegbey +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Oil Futures Prices, Inflation Expectations, and Bond Risk Premiums
Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.ABSTRACT By decomposing West Texas Intermediate futures price changes into structural supply and demand shocks, this paper shows that dissecting the oil price significantly improves inflation forecasts. Empirically, demand‐driven shocks predict a negative real bond risk premium but a positive inflation risk premium; these opposing effects result in an ...
Haibo Jiang
wiley +1 more source
The Impact of Democratization and Globalization on Environmental Sustainability in Brazil
Geological Journal, EarlyView.Fossil fuel, economic globalisation, and economic growth drive environmental degradation while democratisation positively influences environmental quality. ABSTRACT Although Brazil still possesses significant ecological reserves, the surplus in its biocapacity has been rapidly declining in recent years.
Mustafa Naimoğlu +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Geological Journal, EarlyView.The current study examines the role of Fintech, wind energy, and green technology in determining environmental suitability in Germany from 2000 to 2024. The study employs time series econometric methods to estimate the QQR and QR techniques. The positive effects of wind production, FinTech, Natural Resources and green technology on environmental ...
Hind Alofaysan, Kamel Si Mohammed
wiley +1 more source