Results 181 to 190 of about 17,888 (310)

Empirical analysis of the correlation between China's Macroeconomic Market and Crude Oil Market based on mixed-frequency group factor model. [PDF]

PLoS One
Zhao J, Yin J.
europepmc   +1 more source

Using DSGE and Machine Learning to Forecast Public Debt for France

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasting public debt is essential for effective policymaking and economic stability, yet traditional approaches face challenges due to data scarcity. While machine learning (ML) has demonstrated success in financial forecasting, its application to macroeconomic forecasting remains underexplored, hindered by short historical time series and ...
Emmanouil Sofianos, Thierry Betti, Theophilos Papadimitriou, Amélie Barbier‐Gauchard, Periklis Gogas   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Can systematic skewness factors predict future interest rates: Evidence from China. [PDF]

PLoS One
Liang X, Sun Y.
europepmc   +1 more source

Evaluating Forecasts at Multiple Horizons: An Extension of the Diebold–Mariano Approach

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecast accuracy tests are fundamental tools for comparing competing predictive models. The widely used Diebold–Mariano (DM) test assesses whether differences in forecast errors are statistically significant. However, its standard form is limited to pairwise comparisons at a single forecast horizon.
Andrew Grant, Matus Mrazik, Steve Satchell   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Economic Welfare, Food Prices, and Sectoral Food Waste: A Structural Analysis Across the European Union. [PDF]

Foods
Vărzaru AA.
europepmc   +1 more source

Oil Futures Prices, Inflation Expectations, and Bond Risk Premiums

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT By decomposing West Texas Intermediate futures price changes into structural supply and demand shocks, this paper shows that dissecting the oil price significantly improves inflation forecasts. Empirically, demand‐driven shocks predict a negative real bond risk premium but a positive inflation risk premium; these opposing effects result in an ...
Haibo Jiang
wiley   +1 more source

Analyzing the Effectiveness of Macroeconomic Policies in Addressing Poverty in Iraq: An Econometric Study considering Digital Transformation and Artificial Intelligence for the Period (2004-2024). [PDF]

F1000Res
Abdullah Abid Al Mihimdy N, Saleh Attia AA, Ministry of Finance–General Tax Authority.   +2 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Analysis Of Macroeconomic Factors On Operational Risk In Islamic Banking In Indonesia And Turkey For The Period 2017–2024

Trisna Dwi Rodhiyah, Indah Yuliana, Maretha Ika Prajawati   +2 more
openalex   +1 more source

The Role of Price‐Volatility Cojumps in Volatility Forecasting

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper investigates whether simultaneous jumps in prices and volatility improve volatility forecasting. Using up‐to‐date high‐frequency S&P 500 and VIX data, we identify price‐volatility cojumps at the intraday granularity and construct upside, downside, and asymmetric measures.
Kefu Liao
wiley   +1 more source

On the Comovement of Contango and Backwardation Across Futures Commodity Markets

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We examine the time‐varying nature of the comovement of the slope of the futures curve in major agricultural, metals and energy commodity futures markets in a Global Vector Autoregressive model. We find significant comovement between the slopes, indicating the co‐existence of backwardation and contango in many seemingly unrelated commodity ...
Angelo Luisi, Francesco Roccazzella, Athanasios Triantafyllou   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source