Machine Learning Approaches to Forecast the Realized Volatility of Crude Oil Prices
ABSTRACT This paper presents an evaluation of the accuracy of machine learning (ML) techniques in forecasting the realized volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. We compare several ML algorithms, including regularization, regression trees, random forests, and neural networks, to several heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models ...
Talha Omer +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Composite GDP nowcasting using macroeconomic variables and electricity data. [PDF]
Lan Z, Liu Z, Wu G.
europepmc +1 more source
A Deep Learning Framework for Forecasting Medium‐Term Covariance in Multiasset Portfolios
ABSTRACT Forecasting the covariance matrix of asset returns is central to portfolio construction, risk management, and asset pricing. However, most existing models struggle at medium‐term horizons, several weeks to months, where shifting market regimes and slower dynamics prevail.
Pedro Reis, Ana Paula Serra, João Gama
wiley +1 more source
The mediating role of financial behavior in the relationship between psychological capital and financial wellbeing: evidence from a cross-sectional study in China. [PDF]
Zhang Y, Gooi LM, Niu J.
europepmc +1 more source
A statistical model of the market sector of macroeconomic management
openaire +1 more source
Forecasting House Prices: The Role of Market Interconnectedness
ABSTRACT While the existing research uncovers interconnections between various housing markets, it largely ignores the question of whether such linkages can improve house price predictions. To address this issue, we proceed in two steps. First, we forecast disaggregated house price growth rates from Australia and China to determine whether ...
Zac Chen +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Macroeconomic-aware forecasting of construction costs in developing countries: Using gated recurrent unit and long short-term memory deep learning framework. [PDF]
Alzara M +6 more
europepmc +1 more source
Regime‐Dependent Nowcasting of the Austrian Economy
ABSTRACT We nowcast and forecast economic activity in Austria, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency, using a preselected number of monthly indicators based on a combination of statistical procedures.
Jaroslava Hlouskova, Ines Fortin
wiley +1 more source
A Hybrid Model for Copper Futures Price Forecasting Utilizing Complexity-Aware Variational Mode Decomposition and Reconstruction and Multi-Behavior-Triggered Interaction Modeling. [PDF]
Li Y, Liu D.
europepmc +1 more source

