Results 221 to 230 of about 139,345 (340)

When Are Statistical Forecast Gains Economically Relevant? Evidence From Bitcoin Returns

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study how statistical forecast gains for Bitcoin translate into trading profits. Using real‐time out‐of‐sample forecasts from daily bivariate VARs from October 2021 to February 2024, we show that Bitcoin returns are forecastable and that seven predictive indices yield significant gains in directional accuracy (DA).
Rehan Arain, Stephen Snudden
wiley   +1 more source

A Fuzzy Framework for Realized Volatility Prediction: Empirical Evidence From Equity Markets

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study introduces a realized volatility fuzzy time series (RV‐FTS) model that applies a fuzzy c‐means clustering algorithm to estimate time‐varying c$$ c $$ latent volatility states and their corresponding membership degrees. These memberships are used to construct a fuzzified volatility estimate as a weighted average of cluster centroids.
Shafqat Iqbal, Štefan Lyócsa
wiley   +1 more source

A Deep Learning Framework for Forecasting Medium‐Term Covariance in Multiasset Portfolios

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasting the covariance matrix of asset returns is central to portfolio construction, risk management, and asset pricing. However, most existing models struggle at medium‐term horizons, several weeks to months, where shifting market regimes and slower dynamics prevail.
Pedro Reis, Ana Paula Serra, João Gama
wiley   +1 more source

When the Tail Wags the Dog: A Time‐Varying FCVAR Analysis of Bitcoin Market

open access: yesJournal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper examines how the relationship between Bitcoin spot and futures markets has evolved using a time‐varying Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive (FCVAR) model. We are the first to apply this methodology dynamically to cryptocurrency markets, allowing us to simultaneously analyze long‐run equilibrium, pricing patterns, market ...
Filippo di Pietro   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

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