Results 101 to 110 of about 66,313 (214)
The martingale index: A measure of self-deception in betting and finance
Judgment and Decision MakingPeople who repeatedly risk money, whether they be traders for financial institutions, corporate executives, day traders, or sports bettors, sometimes appear to do better than chance only because the risk of large losses is hidden or overlooked.
Valentin Dimitrov, Glenn Shafer
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Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, Volume 42, Issue 3, May/June 2026.ABSTRACT Traditional short‐rate models introduce volatility directly into the instantaneous rate via Brownian shocks. However, empirical data suggest that short‐term interest rates exhibit smoother behavior than such models imply. We propose a two‐factor Gaussian short‐rate model in which the short rate is a deterministic exponential filter of a ...
Allan Jonathan da Silva
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Martingale sinh bởi bước đi ngẫu nhiên một chiều có điều kiện
Tạp chí Khoa học Đại học Cần ThơTrong bài báo này, mô hình bước đi ngẫu nhiên một chiều và bước đi ngẫu nhiên một chiều có điều kiện đã được xem xét. Trong khi bước đi ngẫu nhiên là một quá trình martingale thì bước đi ngẫu nhiên có điều kiện lại là một submartingale chặt.
Lê Hoài Nhân +2 more
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Statistics in Medicine, Volume 45, Issue 10-12, May 2026.ABSTRACT For composite time‐to‐event outcomes, the win ratio as a relative measure ignores ties resulting from non‐occurrence of events, which can obscure important context in regression settings where event rates—and hence the proportion of ties—vary over time and across covariate values.
Lu Mao
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ON CONTINUOUS MARTINGALES [PDF]
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1965 Dubins, L. E., Schwarz, G.
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Change Point Analysis for Functional Data Using Empirical Characteristic Functionals
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 612-631, May 2026.ABSTRACT We develop a new method to detect change points in the distribution of functional data based on integrated CUSUM processes of empirical characteristic functionals. Asymptotic results are presented under conditions allowing for low‐order moments and serial dependence in the data establishing the limiting null‐distribution of the proposed test ...
Lajos Horváth +2 more
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Minimal Entropy and Entropic Risk Measures: A Unified Framework via Relative Entropy
RisksWe introduce a new coherent risk measure, the minimal-entropy risk measure, which is built on the minimal-entropy σ-martingale measure—a concept inspired by the well-known minimal-entropy martingale measure used in option pricing.
Moritz Sohns
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Tests for Changes in Count Time Series Models With Exogenous Covariates
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 526-538, May 2026.ABSTRACT We deal with a parametric change in models for count time series with exogenous covariates specified via the conditional distribution, i.e., with integer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic models with covariates (INGARCH‐X).
Šárka Hudecová, Marie Hušková
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Nonparametric Detection of a Time‐Varying Mean
Journal of Time Series Analysis, Volume 47, Issue 3, Page 597-611, May 2026.ABSTRACT We propose a nonparametric portmanteau test for detecting changes in the unconditional mean of a univariate time series which may display either long or short memory. Our approach is designed to have power against, among other things, cases where the mean component of the series displays abrupt level shifts, deterministic trending behaviour ...
Fabrizio Iacone, A. M. Robert Taylor
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