Results 141 to 150 of about 389 (168)

Monolithic Framework to Simulate Fluid‐Structure Interaction Problems Using Geometric Volume‐of‐Fluid Method

International Journal for Numerical Methods in Fluids, EarlyView.
A three‐dimensional fluid‐structure interaction (FSI) framework is developed using the geometric volume‐of‐fluid (VOF) interface capturing method and applied to assess largescale turbulent FSI interactions. The monolithic FSI framework is extensively validated, and despite the discontinuities across the interface, the FSI framework delivers stable and ...
Soham Prajapati, Ali Fakhreddine, Krishnan Mahesh   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Identifying Drivers of Deviations From Rational Expectations: Using a New Irrational Index for Inflation Forecasts

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Most studies on inflation forecasts have studied behavioral biases, informational frictions, or external shocks in isolation, without considering how these factors jointly drive deviations from rational expectations. We therefore adopt an integrated framework that simultaneously estimates the behavioral, informational, and external ...
Belen Chocobar, Peter Claeys
wiley   +1 more source

Exploring the Nexus Between Sustainability Index and Central European Stock Markets Competitiveness: Evidence Through Time–Frequency Analysis and SHAP

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Sustainability has become an important factor shaping financial markets and investor behavior. This paper examines the relationship between sustainability indices and Central European stock markets using a time–frequency approach. Wavelet coherence is employed to capture time‐varying co‐movements between sustainability indices and stock market
Zuzana Janková, Dipak Kumar Jana, Michal Páleš, Elena Fleaca, Petr Dostál   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Using DSGE and Machine Learning to Forecast Public Debt for France

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecasting public debt is essential for effective policymaking and economic stability, yet traditional approaches face challenges due to data scarcity. While machine learning (ML) has demonstrated success in financial forecasting, its application to macroeconomic forecasting remains underexplored, hindered by short historical time series and ...
Emmanouil Sofianos, Thierry Betti, Theophilos Papadimitriou, Amélie Barbier‐Gauchard, Periklis Gogas   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Evaluating Forecasts at Multiple Horizons: An Extension of the Diebold–Mariano Approach

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecast accuracy tests are fundamental tools for comparing competing predictive models. The widely used Diebold–Mariano (DM) test assesses whether differences in forecast errors are statistically significant. However, its standard form is limited to pairwise comparisons at a single forecast horizon.
Andrew Grant, Matus Mrazik, Steve Satchell   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting With Dynamic Factor Models Estimated by Partial Least Squares

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Dynamic factor models (DFMs) have found great success in nowcasting and short‐term macroeconomic forecasting when incorporating large sets of predictive information. The factor loadings are typically estimated cross‐sectionally with principal component analysis (PCA) or maximum likelihood (ML), which ignore whether the factors have predictive ...
Samuel Rauhala
wiley   +1 more source

Point and Risk estImation Using an enSemble of Models for Nowcasting: PRISM‐Now

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We propose PRISM‐Now, a novel ensemble forecasting system for near‐term GDP projection. Recognizing that relevant economic information evolves over time, we treat forecasts from multiple base models as draws from a mixture distribution of “good” and “bad” estimates, whose composition changes continuously and cannot be identified ex ante.
Beomseok Seo, Hyungbae Cho, Dongjae Lee
wiley   +1 more source

Personalized Precision in Healthcare Payment Systems: Insights From a Real‐World Cancer Patients Cohort Study

Health Care Science, EarlyView.
We developed an effective prediction model for reasonably high hospitalization costs, using gastric cancer surgery patients as an example. Integrating this assessment into the healthcare payment system based on diagnosis‐related groups is expected to improve the individualization and precision of health insurance fund utilization.
Kan Xue, Hongrui Tian, Qi Wang, Yinkui Wang, Fei Shan, Yansui Yang, Miao Yu, Zhonghu He, Ziyu Li, Jiafu Ji   +9 more
wiley   +1 more source

What Role Do Finance Ministers Play in Political Business Cycles? Evidence‐Based on a New African Dataset

International Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study investigates how the personal characteristics of finance ministers influence political budget cycles in Africa. Using a new dataset covering 300 finance ministers across 23 countries from 1980 to 2020, we find that political budget cycles primarily take the form of increased government consumption during election years.
Christine Olivia Strong
wiley   +1 more source

Kryptonite for Cryptocurrencies? What Are the Effects of Regulatory Controls on Bitcoin Returns and Volatility?

International Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper examines the impact of regulatory controls on Bitcoin's excess returns and volatility. The paper innovates by proxying changes in the regulatory environment using global Google search volume intensity data. The generated regulatory indices accurately identify episodes of regulatory tightening within cryptocurrency markets.
Robert Mullings
wiley   +1 more source