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Estimating the natural rate of unemployment and testing the natural rate hypothesis

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1999
How should one measure the natural rate of unemployment? This paper proposes a systems procedure as an alternative to NAIRU. The natural rate is treated as an unobserved state variable in a system that includes measurement equations for the unemployment rate, the rate of wage growth and the rate of inflation.
Michael K. Salemi
openaire   +2 more sources

What’s the natural rate of unemployment? Answers from forecasters

International Review of Applied Economics, 2019
For its panel survey of professional macroeconomic forecasters, the US Federal Reserve asks panelists whether they use the ‘natural rate of unemployment’ (NRU) or ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ (NAIRU) in formulating their forecasts ...
Kevin W. Capehart
semanticscholar   +1 more source

The natural rate of unemployment

2023
The natural rate of unemployment hypothesis was a groundbreaking concept (Friedman & Phelps, 1967, 1968); however, with the introduction of the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment rate (Blanchard & Summers, 1986) the existence of the natural rate is severely questioned by large number of economists.
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State Natural Rates of Unemployment

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2016
I construct estimates for the natural rate of unemployment by state and year from 1981 to 2013. The estimate is conditional on a set of standard public finance variables and state fixed effects. While year fixed effects were used to estimate the model, the year fixed effects are dropped and replaced with a value that forces the national natural rate of
openaire   +1 more source

Analysis of Population, Poverty, Unemployment Rate, and Gini Ratio on Human Development Index in Bangka Belitung

Journal Of Natural Sciences And Mathematics Research
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a measure that evaluates human development achievements based on fundamental quality-of-life components that can influence individual productivity levels.
Helen Suhendra   +8 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Forecasting the unemployment rate in West Java Province using VARX and SVR methods

Journal Of Natural Sciences And Mathematics Research
This study discusses the forecasting of the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) in West Java Province using two time series approaches: Vector Autoregressive with Exogenous variables (VARX) and Support Vector Regression (SVR).
Yuniar Kusuma Wardani, Sugiman
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Friedman’s Characterization of the Natural Rate of Unemployment [PDF]

open access: possible, 2016
Arguably, of the many pioneering classics authored by Milton Friedman, it is his Presidential Address to the American Economic Association, in December, 1967, published as The Role of Monetary Policy in the AEA, in March, 1968, that may have had the greatest impact in serious policy circles.
openaire   +1 more source

The Natural Rate of Unemployment

1995
For 25 years, theory about the causes of, and possible solutions to, the problem of unemployment has been dominated by Phelps' and Friedman's natural rate of unemployment hypothesis. This postulates that the equilibrium rate of unemployment consistent with steady inflation is determined by structural variables: sustainable reductions in unemployment ...
openaire   +1 more source

The Unnatural “Natural” Rate of Unemployment

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 1981
(1981). The Unnatural “Natural” Rate of Unemployment. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics: Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 25-31.
openaire   +1 more source

Does Government Spending, Investment, and Natural Resources Reduce Unemployment in Riau Province, Indonesia?

International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues
Unemployment is a major macroeconomic problem included in the SDG 2030 agenda, Goal 8. This study aims to analyze the unemployment rate, examine the dynamic patterns in unemployment between regions in Riau Province, and demonstrate the effect of ...
Muhammad Hidayat   +2 more
semanticscholar   +1 more source

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