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In search of the natural rate of unemployment

Journal of Monetary Economics, 2003
We use a structural-VAR model to estimate the steady-state rate of unemployment, which we define as the natural rate. Although nothing constrains it to do so, the natural rate measured by this approach implies a strong negative relationship between cyclical unemployment and inflation, adding to the empirical evidence for a short-run Phillips Curve ...
Thomas B. King, James C. Morley
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Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment: A Primer

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series, 2023
Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of inflationary pressures. After two turbulent years, unemployment returned to its pre-pandemic low, and the estimated underlying longer-run unemployment rate appeared ...
Brandyn Bok, Richard K. Crump, Christopher J. Nekarda, Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau   +3 more
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The natural rate of unemployment

2023
The natural rate of unemployment hypothesis was a groundbreaking concept (Friedman & Phelps, 1967, 1968); however, with the introduction of the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment rate (Blanchard & Summers, 1986) the existence of the natural rate is severely questioned by large number of economists.
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Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2020
Abstract We use a parsimonious unobserved components model with flow rates to estimate a time-varying unemployment rate trend for Turkey. Our approach is grounded in the modern theory of labor market search. This trend estimate yields a level that the unemployment rate would converge to in the absence of cyclical shocks that move different flow rates
Şengül, Gönül, Tasci, M.
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Friedman’s Characterization of the Natural Rate of Unemployment [PDF]

, 2016
Arguably, of the many pioneering classics authored by Milton Friedman, it is his Presidential Address to the American Economic Association, in December, 1967, published as The Role of Monetary Policy in the AEA, in March, 1968, that may have had the greatest impact in serious policy circles.
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The Natural Rate of Unemployment

1995
For 25 years, theory about the causes of, and possible solutions to, the problem of unemployment has been dominated by Phelps' and Friedman's natural rate of unemployment hypothesis. This postulates that the equilibrium rate of unemployment consistent with steady inflation is determined by structural variables: sustainable reductions in unemployment ...
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The Unnatural “Natural” Rate of Unemployment

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 1981
(1981). The Unnatural “Natural” Rate of Unemployment. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics: Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 25-31.
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Money and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

2000
The prevailing view among economists and policy makers is that money has no impact on production in a longer term characterised by full price and wage flexibility and rational expectations. This book presents a revisionist view of monetary policy and monetary regimes.
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A Model of the Natural Rate of Unemployment

1986
Since the publication of Edmund Phelps' volume, the "new" macroeconomics has treated the labor market as a dynamic process of rational search by unemployed workers for available vacancies. Wages are viewed as at least potentially flexible, though free contracting between workers and firms may lead to fixed wages in the short run.
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The natural rate of unemployment and the unemployment gender gap [PDF]

, 2011
Recent labour market developments include an increase in labour market mismatches, in that high unemployment rates coexist with significant levels of vacancies. This pattern is particularly evident in the US economy, but is also significant within the European Union; it implies that the natural rate of unemployment may rise significantly, thus ...
Maurizio Baussola, Chiara Mussida
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