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What’s the natural rate of unemployment? Answers from forecasters

International Review of Applied Economics, 2019
For its panel survey of professional macroeconomic forecasters, the US Federal Reserve asks panelists whether they use the ‘natural rate of unemployment’ (NRU) or ‘non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment’ (NAIRU) in formulating their forecasts ...
Kevin W. Capehart
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Estimating Natural Rates of Unemployment: A Primer

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series, 2023
Before the pandemic, the U.S. unemployment rate reached a historic low that was close to estimates of its underlying longer-run value and the short-run level associated with an absence of inflationary pressures. After two turbulent years, unemployment returned to its pre-pandemic low, and the estimated underlying longer-run unemployment rate appeared ...
Brandyn Bok   +3 more
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The natural rate of unemployment

2023
The natural rate of unemployment hypothesis was a groundbreaking concept (Friedman & Phelps, 1967, 1968); however, with the introduction of the hysteresis hypothesis in unemployment rate (Blanchard & Summers, 1986) the existence of the natural rate is severely questioned by large number of economists.
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State Natural Rates of Unemployment

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2016
I construct estimates for the natural rate of unemployment by state and year from 1981 to 2013. The estimate is conditional on a set of standard public finance variables and state fixed effects. While year fixed effects were used to estimate the model, the year fixed effects are dropped and replaced with a value that forces the national natural rate of
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A Systems Approach to Estimating the Natural Rate of Unemployment and Potential Output for the United States

Social Science Research Network, 1989
The methodology used in this paper has three distinguishing features: the natural rate of unemployment and potential output are jointly estimated; estimation integrates wage and price data with "real" and structural data; and third, the methodology ...
Charles L Adams, D. Coe
semanticscholar   +1 more source

Friedman’s Characterization of the Natural Rate of Unemployment [PDF]

open access: possible, 2016
Arguably, of the many pioneering classics authored by Milton Friedman, it is his Presidential Address to the American Economic Association, in December, 1967, published as The Role of Monetary Policy in the AEA, in March, 1968, that may have had the greatest impact in serious policy circles.
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Structural Determinants of the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Canada

Social Science Research Network, 1989
Empirical estimates are presented of the policy and structural determinants of the natural rate of unemployment in Canada. The structural features of the economy that impinge on the adjustment of real wages to their equilibrium level are discussed, and ...
D. Coe
semanticscholar   +1 more source

The Unnatural “Natural” Rate of Unemployment

Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 1981
(1981). The Unnatural “Natural” Rate of Unemployment. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics: Vol. 4, No. 1, pp. 25-31.
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Money and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

2000
The prevailing view among economists and policy makers is that money has no impact on production in a longer term characterised by full price and wage flexibility and rational expectations. This book presents a revisionist view of monetary policy and monetary regimes.
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