The Accuracy Smoothness Dilemma in Prediction: A Novel Multivariate M‐SSA Forecast Approach
ABSTRACT Forecasting presents a complex estimation challenge, as it involves balancing multiple, often conflicting, priorities and objectives. Conventional forecast optimization methods typically emphasize a single metric, such as minimizing the mean squared error (MSE), which may neglect other crucial aspects of predictive performance. To address this
Marc Wildi
wiley +1 more source
Buckling and Post-Buckling Behaviour of a Carbon Fibre-Reinforced Polymer Stiffened Panel: A Numerical and Experimental Study. [PDF]
Sellitto A +6 more
europepmc +1 more source
Sparse Causal Dynamic Linear Regression
ABSTRACT We develop a sparse causal dynamic regression framework for long multivariate time series. With very long time series, the potentially large number of lags and leads in a dynamic regression model often makes time‐domain estimation numerically unstable or intractable.
Rui Huang, Kung‐Sik Chan
wiley +1 more source
Kernel dynamic orthonormal subspace analysis for monitoring hybrid electric vehicle powertrain faults. [PDF]
Wang Y +4 more
europepmc +1 more source
Asymptotics of Time‐Varying Processes in Continuous‐Time Using Locally Stationary Approximations
ABSTRACT We introduce a general theory on stationary approximations for locally stationary continuous‐time processes. Based on the stationary approximation, we use θ$$ \theta $$‐weak dependence to establish laws of large numbers and central limit type results under different observation schemes.
Robert Stelzer, Bennet Ströh
wiley +1 more source
Fisher-Information-Based Cooperative Sensor Node Pre-Selection for UWB-Aided GNSS-Denied UAV Swarm Localization Under Heterogeneous Ranging Noise. [PDF]
Sun Y, Du X, Gong P.
europepmc +1 more source
Reinforcement Learning for Jump‐Diffusions, With Financial Applications
ABSTRACT We study continuous‐time reinforcement learning (RL) for stochastic control in which system dynamics are governed by jump‐diffusion processes. We formulate an entropy‐regularized exploratory control problem with stochastic policies to capture the exploration–exploitation balance essential for RL.
Xuefeng Gao, Lingfei Li, Xun Yu Zhou
wiley +1 more source
Comparing Dynamical Models Through Diffeomorphic Vector Field Alignment. [PDF]
Chen R, Vedovati G, Braver T, Ching S.
europepmc +1 more source
Nowcasting Swiss GDP Growth From Public Lead Texts: Simple Methods Are Sufficient
ABSTRACT Public lead texts from Swiss newspapers contain most of the signal needed to nowcast Swiss GDP growth in real time. I build an indicator from daily topic‐specific sentiment and recession measures extracted from three Swiss newspapers and evaluate it in pseudo‐real time.
Marc Burri
wiley +1 more source
The Emergence of Turing Instability and Pattern Formation in a Nonlinear Stochastic Spatiotemporal Epidemic Model with Reinfections. [PDF]
Singh AK +3 more
europepmc +1 more source

