Results 241 to 250 of about 303,742 (304)

How consistently do ensemble prediction systems represent the growth of atmospheric uncertainty?

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Spread‐based diagnostics calculated for 12 ensemble prediction systems are compared to understand the consistency with which they represent atmospheric uncertainty growth. Good correlation between all these systems is found in the extratropics for a lead time range from 48 hr to between 96 hr and 192 hr.
Douglas Wood   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Stratospheric and tropospheric seasonality and its implications for observation requirements in numerical weather prediction

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Daily time series of zonal‐mean zonal wind (m·s−1) at 10 hPa and 60° N from 1950 to 2021 from the ERA5 reanalysis. This shows huge variability in some seasons and very little in others. We provide evidence that high‐level observations, radiosonde and satellite, are more important during the extended winter season with its very large variability ...
Bruce Ingleby, Inna Polichtchouk
wiley   +1 more source

An opportunity index to anticipate when subseasonal predictions are useful

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Simultaneously active subseasonal windows of forecast opportunity can be combined into a single opportunity index, which can be used operationally to anticipate enhanced or reduced subseasonal prediction skill. For predictions of temperature anomalies in Switzerland during summer—a region and season with particularly low predictability—skill can nearly
Dominik Büeler   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Diagnosing the 11‐year solar cycle's influence on the East Atlantic pattern

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
A previously unidentified solar‐cycle response in the East Atlantic pattern is found in late winter at lag +3 years with larger amplitude than the NAO response. A statistically significant NAO response to the solar cycle is seen in late winter at lag 0 years.
Stergios Misios   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Wood-loving magic mushrooms from Australia are saprotrophic invaders in the Northern Hemisphere. [PDF]

open access: yesFungal Syst Evol
McTaggart AR   +14 more
europepmc   +1 more source

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