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International Journal of Forecasting, 2015
Abstract This comment on the study by Ball, Jalles, and Loungani (2015) compares their findings on the role of Okun’s Law in forecasts and fully revised data with real-time data for the G7 countries plus Australia and New Zealand. Ball et al. find that the Okun’s Law relationship in Consensus forecasts is consistent with that in fully revised data ...
Amy Y. Guisinger, Tara M. Sinclair
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Abstract This comment on the study by Ball, Jalles, and Loungani (2015) compares their findings on the role of Okun’s Law in forecasts and fully revised data with real-time data for the G7 countries plus Australia and New Zealand. Ball et al. find that the Okun’s Law relationship in Consensus forecasts is consistent with that in fully revised data ...
Amy Y. Guisinger, Tara M. Sinclair
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Okun's Law and Employment Adjustment
Japanese Economy, 2012This study estimates and conducts a factor analysis on Okun's coefficient to look at the labor productivity effect that can be derived from the Okun coefficient residual, and indirectly examines the employment adjustment speed of the Japanese economy in 1981-2010. The key findings are as follows.
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WiSt - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliches Studium, 2013
Viola Eßlinger, Helmut Wienert
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Viola Eßlinger, Helmut Wienert
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Interpreting deviations from Okun’s Law [PDF]
The traditional relationship between unemployment and output growth known as Okun’s law appeared to break down during the Great Recession. This raised the question of whether this rule of thumb was still meaningful as a forecasting tool. However, recent revisions to GDP data show that its relation with unemployment followed a fairly typical cyclical ...
Daly, Mary C. +3 more
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Okun's Law and Productivity Innovations
American Economic Review, 2010A long tradition in macroeconomics dating back to Arthur Okun (1965) and Walter Oi (1962) regards cyclical productivity fluctuations as an artifact, a residual generated from the incomplete and lagged response of employment and labor hours to demand-driven fluctuations in real output.
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How useful is Okun's law? [PDF]
From the beginning of 2003 through the first quarter of 2006, real gross domestic product in the United States grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent. As expected, unemployment during the period fell. Over the course of the next year, average growth slowed to less than half its earlier rate--but unemployment continued to drift downward.
Edward S. Knotek, II
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Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993Okun's Law has been accepted as an empirical regularity that predicts a 3 percentage point increase in output for every 1 point reduction in the unemployment rate, but only because other facts, such as weekly hours, induced labor supply and productivity tend to rise as well. When output gaps are estimated for the U.S. economy with a production-function
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Capital Utilization and Okun's Law: A Reply
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1981Even if You's method for accounting for capital employment could be successfully implemented, his claim that his results support Okun's original estimate of the link between unemployment and the GNP gap would be incorrect. His claim of support for a three to one link between the employment ratio and output gap results from a failure to distinguish the ...
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International Advances in Economic Research, 2000
"Okun's law" describes an enduring empirical observation first made by Arthur Okun, relating departures from the natural rate of unemployment to changes in real output. This paper employs a recent development in trend-cycle decomposition of economic time series to measure the Okun coefficient using U.S. national and regional data.
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"Okun's law" describes an enduring empirical observation first made by Arthur Okun, relating departures from the natural rate of unemployment to changes in real output. This paper employs a recent development in trend-cycle decomposition of economic time series to measure the Okun coefficient using U.S. national and regional data.
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