Results 141 to 150 of about 96,278 (258)

Global Imbalances and Imported Disinflation in the Euro Area [PDF]

We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data.
Barthélemy, J., Cléaud, G.
core  

Intraday Functional PCA Forecasting of Cryptocurrency Returns

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We study the functional PCA (FPCA) forecasting method in application to functions of intraday returns on Bitcoin. We show that improved interval forecasts of future return functions are obtained when the conditional heteroscedasticity of return functions is taken into account.
Joann Jasiak, Cheng Zhong
wiley   +1 more source

Country portfolios in open economy macro models [PDF]

This paper develops a simple approximation method for computing equilibrium portfolios in dynamic general equilibrium open economy macro models. The method is widely applicable, simple to implement, and gives analytical solutions for equilibrium ...
Alan Sutherland, Michael B. Devereux
core  

Term Spread Volatility as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic predictive power of the volatility of the US Treasury yield curve slope (term spread volatility). Our forecasting exercise shows that US term spread volatility has significant predictive power for US industrial production and employment growth.
Anastasios Megaritis, Dimitrios Bakas, Theodora Bermpei, Athanasios Triantafyllou   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

The decline of local wisdom in managing the Wain River protected forest near Indonesia's new capital city buffer zone. [PDF]

PLoS One
Geria IM, Handini R, Purwanti E, Juliawati NPE, Wibowo UP, Arsana IGKD, Suparta IW, Simanjuntak T, Sofian HO, Nastiti TS, Sudiartha GAW, Kurniadi AP.   +11 more
europepmc   +1 more source

International monetary policy cooperation revisited: conservatism and non-atomistic wage setting [PDF]

This paper presents a simple model of policy coordination in line with the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature. I extent the analysis on non-cooperative toward cooperative solutions by incorporating a collective wage bargaining system and ...
Vincenzo Cuciniello
core  

Global Insights Into Term Spreads: Unveiling Their Predictive Power During Unconventional Monetary Policy

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This study investigates the predictive power of the term spread for forecasting economic activity across both conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. Utilizing data from 22 OECD countries spanning the period from 1985Q1 to 2024Q2, the analysis reveals that the term spread generally maintains its ability to predict GDP growth ...
Petri Kuosmanen, Juuso Vataja
wiley   +1 more source

Under renovation: Large-scale societal events induce shifts between moral ideologies. [PDF]

PLoS One
Chang YP, Chiang YS, Wang CK.
europepmc   +1 more source

Outward FDI and Domestic Investment [PDF]

This paper examines the impact of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on domestic investment by applying co-integration techniques to macroeconomic time series data for the United Sates and Germany. We show that the two countries differ: In the case
Dierk Herzer, Mechthild Schrooten
core  

Identifying Drivers of Deviations From Rational Expectations: Using a New Irrational Index for Inflation Forecasts

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Most studies on inflation forecasts have studied behavioral biases, informational frictions, or external shocks in isolation, without considering how these factors jointly drive deviations from rational expectations. We therefore adopt an integrated framework that simultaneously estimates the behavioral, informational, and external ...
Belen Chocobar, Peter Claeys
wiley   +1 more source