Results 131 to 140 of about 95,424 (228)
Optimal Monetary Policy in an Interdependent World [PDF]
In the literature on international monetary policy, the paradigm is that gains from coordination are fairly small. Monetary policy is conducted to stabilize macroeconomic fluctuations and gains from policy coordination arise from preventing national ...
Michael Evers
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Forecasting House Prices: The Role of Market Interconnectedness
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT While the existing research uncovers interconnections between various housing markets, it largely ignores the question of whether such linkages can improve house price predictions. To address this issue, we proceed in two steps. First, we forecast disaggregated house price growth rates from Australia and China to determine whether ...
Zac Chen +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Regime‐Dependent Nowcasting of the Austrian Economy
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We nowcast and forecast economic activity in Austria, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, and investment, which are available at a quarterly frequency, using a preselected number of monthly indicators based on a combination of statistical procedures.
Jaroslava Hlouskova, Ines Fortin
wiley +1 more source
Global Imbalances and Imported Disinflation in the Euro Area [PDF]
We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area in an open economy framework. The model includes structural trends on all variables, which allow us to estimate on gross data.
Barthélemy, J., Cléaud, G.
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Intraday Functional PCA Forecasting of Cryptocurrency Returns
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We study the functional PCA (FPCA) forecasting method in application to functions of intraday returns on Bitcoin. We show that improved interval forecasts of future return functions are obtained when the conditional heteroscedasticity of return functions is taken into account.
Joann Jasiak, Cheng Zhong
wiley +1 more source
Country portfolios in open economy macro models [PDF]
This paper develops a simple approximation method for computing equilibrium portfolios in dynamic general equilibrium open economy macro models. The method is widely applicable, simple to implement, and gives analytical solutions for equilibrium ...
Alan Sutherland, Michael B. Devereux
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Term Spread Volatility as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic predictive power of the volatility of the US Treasury yield curve slope (term spread volatility). Our forecasting exercise shows that US term spread volatility has significant predictive power for US industrial production and employment growth.
Anastasios Megaritis +3 more
wiley +1 more source
International monetary policy cooperation revisited: conservatism and non-atomistic wage setting [PDF]
This paper presents a simple model of policy coordination in line with the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature. I extent the analysis on non-cooperative toward cooperative solutions by incorporating a collective wage bargaining system and ...
Vincenzo Cuciniello
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Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This study investigates the predictive power of the term spread for forecasting economic activity across both conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. Utilizing data from 22 OECD countries spanning the period from 1985Q1 to 2024Q2, the analysis reveals that the term spread generally maintains its ability to predict GDP growth ...
Petri Kuosmanen, Juuso Vataja
wiley +1 more source
Outward FDI and Domestic Investment [PDF]
This paper examines the impact of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on domestic investment by applying co-integration techniques to macroeconomic time series data for the United Sates and Germany. We show that the two countries differ: In the case
Dierk Herzer, Mechthild Schrooten
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