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Trend Output and the Output Gap in the UK
National Institute Economic Review, 2011This note looks at estimates of the current scale of the output gap in the UK and at the factors that affect estimates of the trend rate of growth. These issues are central to the debate on macroeconomic policy, both in the short and the long run. The speed at which the economy returns to full capacity, along with the scale of the output gap, will be ...
Ray Barrell, Simon Kirby
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Potential Output and Output Gap in Nepal [PDF]
NRB Economic Review, 2010 The potential output and output gap are key variables in identifying the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. This paper estimates potential output and the output gap in Nepal by different methodologies.
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Which gap? Alternative estimations of potential output and the output gap in the Italian economy
Politica economica, 2017This paper presents an estimation of the output gap based on a multivariate filter that extracts the signal from output indicators and from a Phillips curve. The empirical findings demonstrate that as the specification of the model changes the estimates of output gap and potential output vary over a broad interval.
Cecilia Frale, Sergio De Nardis
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Journal of Travel Research, 2018
This article investigates the impact of tourism arrivals on a host country’s output gap, defined as the difference between actual gross domestic product (GDP) and trend GDP. Using panel data methods that account for the potential endogeneity of tourism and the business cycle, and the possible nonstationarity of tourism arrivals, the results show that ...
Carmignani, Fabrizio, Moyle, Char-lee
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This article investigates the impact of tourism arrivals on a host country’s output gap, defined as the difference between actual gross domestic product (GDP) and trend GDP. Using panel data methods that account for the potential endogeneity of tourism and the business cycle, and the possible nonstationarity of tourism arrivals, the results show that ...
Carmignani, Fabrizio, Moyle, Char-lee
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Potential Output and Output Gap Estimates for Nepal
NRB Economic Review, 2017Estimation of potential output and output gap is one of the key issues for the conduct of macroeconomic policies and structural reforms in the long-run as the idea of output gap helps decide on the stance of such policies. A positive output gap, for instance, indicates that aggregate demand exceeds the productive capacity of the economy resulting into ...
Pradeep Raj Poudyal +4 more
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Growth, Capacity Output, and the Output Gap
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1963AST spring and summer we witnessed a vigorous exchange of views between the present Council of Economic Advisors to the President and the former chairman of that body, Professor Arthur F. Burns.' It was a lesson in humility to note that the key issue of this policy-oriented discussion was not some highly sophisticated model but the basic problem of ...
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ESTIMATING POTENTIAL OUTPUT AND THE OUTPUT GAP FOR BRAZIL [PDF]
, 2004 This paper aims to estimate output gap for Brazilian economy through di.erents methodolies. We use traditional univariate techniques and propose a new semi-estructural methodology that combines HP filtering and the production function approach. In order to compare the di.erent potential output estimates, we use a Phillips curve to predict free price ...
Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo +2 more
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Capital Utilization, Productivity, and Output Gap
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1979T HE rate of aggregate output a nation's economy can produce under the conditions of full employment depends on, among other things, the available man-hours, capital stock, and technology. Previous studies on the output gap and potential output, however, have not directly introduced into their models underutilization of capital input caused by the ...
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