Self and other-perceived deception detection abilities are highly correlated but unassociated with objective detection ability: Examining the detection consensus effect. [PDF]
Sci RepMarkowitz DM.
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Sensitivity of Bayesian Networks to Noise in Their Parameters. [PDF]
Entropy (Basel)Onisko A, Druzdzel MJ.
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Personal, environmental and behavioral predictors associated with online fraud victimization among adults. [PDF]
PLoS OneBalakrishnan V, Ahhmed U, Basheer F.
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Managerial Overconfidence and Market Feedback Effects
Management Science, 2023We show that managerial learning from stock prices can lead to feedback loop vulnerability: corrective actions based on perceived negative market signals reduce the sensitivity of asset payoffs to stock market information. Less sensitivity discourages liquidity provision and increases the price impact of liquidity shocks.
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The overconfidence effect in social prediction.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1990In five studies with overlapping designs and intents, subjects predicted a specific peer's responses to a variety of stimulus situations, each of which offered a pair of mutually exclusive and exhaustive response alternatives. Each prediction was accompanied by a subjective probability estimate reflecting the subjects' confidence in its accuracy--a ...
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Effects of managerial overconfidence on analyst recommendations
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2018This study investigates the relation between managerial overconfidence and analyst recommendations. The empirical finding shows that analysts are less likely to issue upgrade recommendations for firms managed by overconfident CEOs. Similarly, analysts spend a longer time to upgrade stocks associated with overconfident CEOs.
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The effect of overconfidence on insurance demand
The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 2021Sandroni and Squintani (Am Econ Rev 97(5):1994–2004, 2007) argue that in the presence of overconfident agents, the findings of Rothschild and Stiglitz (Q J Econ 90:629–649, 1976) no longer hold since compulsory insurance makes the low-risk agents worse off.
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Nominal effect vs actual effect: overconfidence in a consignment omnichannel
Electronic Commerce Research, 2021The overconfident behavior brings about serious decision biases to the consignment omnichannel, which will invariably lead to false prosperity and poor actual performance eventually. This paper tries to explore the nominal and actual effects and corresponding countermeasures of overconfident behavior issues in a consignment omnichannel through game ...
Zhisong Chen, Chaonan Tang, Jianhui Peng
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Effect of management's overconfidence on debt maturities
Asian Journal of Research in Banking and Finance, 2016The aim of this study is to investigate impact of management's overconfidence and debt maturities in companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The research method is descriptive and correlational. For this purpose we uses screening techniques over 7 years and 118 companies were selected from Tehran Stock Exchange.
Hamidreza Vakilifar, Morteza Mohebi
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The Performance Effect of CEO Overconfidence in Turnaround Situations
Academy of Management Proceedings, 2018Despite advancements in the literature on CEO overconfidence, empirical evidence of performance effects of this cognitive bias remains scarce. Our contribution in this context is twofold.
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