Results 191 to 200 of about 179,310 (305)

Forecasting House Prices: The Role of Market Interconnectedness

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT While the existing research uncovers interconnections between various housing markets, it largely ignores the question of whether such linkages can improve house price predictions. To address this issue, we proceed in two steps. First, we forecast disaggregated house price growth rates from Australia and China to determine whether ...
Zac Chen   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Term Spread Volatility as a Leading Indicator of Economic Activity

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT In this paper, we examine the macroeconomic predictive power of the volatility of the US Treasury yield curve slope (term spread volatility). Our forecasting exercise shows that US term spread volatility has significant predictive power for US industrial production and employment growth.
Anastasios Megaritis   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Identifying Drivers of Deviations From Rational Expectations: Using a New Irrational Index for Inflation Forecasts

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Most studies on inflation forecasts have studied behavioral biases, informational frictions, or external shocks in isolation, without considering how these factors jointly drive deviations from rational expectations. We therefore adopt an integrated framework that simultaneously estimates the behavioral, informational, and external ...
Belen Chocobar, Peter Claeys
wiley   +1 more source

Exploring the Nexus Between Sustainability Index and Central European Stock Markets Competitiveness: Evidence Through Time–Frequency Analysis and SHAP

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Sustainability has become an important factor shaping financial markets and investor behavior. This paper examines the relationship between sustainability indices and Central European stock markets using a time–frequency approach. Wavelet coherence is employed to capture time‐varying co‐movements between sustainability indices and stock market
Zuzana Janková   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Essays in panel data and financial econometrics

open access: yes, 2016
This thesis is concerned with volatility estimation using financial panels and bias-reduction in non-linear dynamic panels in the presence of dependence.Traditional GARCH-type volatility models require large time-series for accurate estimation. This makes it impossible to analyse some interesting datasets which do not have a large enough history of ...
openaire   +1 more source

Evaluating Forecasts at Multiple Horizons: An Extension of the Diebold–Mariano Approach

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecast accuracy tests are fundamental tools for comparing competing predictive models. The widely used Diebold–Mariano (DM) test assesses whether differences in forecast errors are statistically significant. However, its standard form is limited to pairwise comparisons at a single forecast horizon.
Andrew Grant   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

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