Results 141 to 150 of about 19,680 (291)

Assessing the impact of model biases on subseasonal forecast skill

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Relaxation experiments where the nudging was performed towards bias‐corrected integrations of the same model display significantly improved skill at weeks 3 and 4, particularly in the northern extratropics. This indicates that there is a large potential for improving dynamical subseasonal forecasting skill by improved treatment of model biases.
Frédéric Vitart, Magdalena Balmaseda
wiley   +1 more source

Reply to Fleming: Not a gossamer web. [PDF]

open access: yesProc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Santer BD   +4 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Predictability of North Pacific blocking events: Analogue‐based analysis of historical MIROC6 simulations

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The predictability of western and eastern North Pacific blocking events is assessed using analogue‐based diagnostics. Eastern blocks exhibit lower predictability, characterized by faster error growth and higher mean logarithmic divergence rates. The study highlights geographical contrasts in blocking stability.
Anupama K. Xavier   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Emergence of the enhanced equatorial Atlantic warming as a fingerprint of global warming. [PDF]

open access: yesNat Commun
Dong L   +6 more
europepmc   +1 more source

All‐sky assimilation impacts of the Tomorrow.io microwave sounder constellation on global weather forecasts

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Key Findings: An assimilation methodology is established for the Tomorrow.io microwave sounder (TMS) flying on CubeSats in sun‐synchronous and inclined orbits, and in all cloud scenes. The TMS has a significant impact on weather forecast lead times up to 3 days in the Tropics in a research‐quality numerical weather prediction setting, and yields water ...
Jonathan J. Guerrette   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

An objective Bayesian method for including parameter uncertainty in ensemble model output statistics

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Conventional model output statistics and ensemble model output statistics methods for calibrating ensemble forecasts lead to severe underestimation of the probabilities of ensemble extremes (in blue). This is because they ignore statistical parameter uncertainty.
Stephen Jewson   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

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