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Endogenous uncertainty and monetary policy
Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2020 AbstractIn this paper, we empirically explore the endogeneity of uncertainty and the interaction between different types of uncertainty and monetary policy using a shock-restricted vector-autoregression model. We find that a contractionary monetary policy shock reduces financial uncertainty, opposite to the findings in the previous literature, while at
ShinHyuck Kang, Kwangyong Park
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Model Uncertainty and Monetary Policy [PDF]
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007 Model uncertainty has the potential to change importantly how monetary policy should be conducted, making it an issue that central banks cannot ignore. In this paper, I use a standard new Keynesian business cycle model to analyze the behavior of a central bank that conducts policy with discretion while fearing that its model is misspeci…ed.
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Managerial and Decision Economics, 2023 The impact of policy uncertainty caused by climate change has attracted widespread attention, but there are few studies on the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and corporate green innovation performance.
Meng Huo, Chao Li, Renhuai Liu
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Monetary Policy Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Surprises [PDF]
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2020 Monetary policy uncertainty affects the transmission of monetary policy shocks to longer-term nominal and real yields. For a given monetary policy shock, the reaction of yields is more pronounced when the level of monetary policy uncertainty is low.
Michiel De Pooter +3 more
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State-Level Economic Policy Uncertainty
Social Science Research Network, 2022 We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3,500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (EPU-S), one ...
Steven J. Davis, J. A. Levy, S. Baker
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Interest rate uncertainty as a policy tool? [PDF]
Journal of International Economics, 2020 Nous étudions un nouvel instrument de politique, soit l’incertitude quant à la trajectoire future des taux d’intérêt, qui peut servir à décourager les entrées de capitaux inefficientes et à ajuster la répartition des investissements entre titres à court terme et investissements directs étrangers dans le compte extérieur. Nous déterminons les arbitrages
Fabio Ghironi, Galip Kemal Ozhan
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HOW DOES ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AFFECT GREEN INNOVATION?
Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 2022 This research examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on green innovation by using the panel fixed effects model from 2000 to 2017 for the samples of 31 provinces in China. The general conclusion is that there exists a positive link from
Xinman Peng +3 more
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Communicating uncertainty in policy analysis [PDF]
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2018 The term “policy analysis” describes scientific evaluations of the impacts of past public policies and predictions of the outcomes of potential future policies. A prevalent practice has been to report policy analysis with incredible certitude. That is, exact predictions of policy outcomes are routine, while expressions of uncertainty are rare. However,
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Trade Policy Uncertainty and the WTO [PDF]
WTO Working Papers, 2014 Do WTO commitments reduce the risk of trade policy reversals? To address this question, we rely on the theoretical model of varying cooperative tariffs by Bagwell and Staiger (1990) to specify our empirical model for the probability of a tariff increase. We then study how WTO tariff commitments affect this probability.
Groppo, Valeria, Piermartini, Roberta
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Uncertainty and monetary policy
, 2004 The experience of monetary policy making in an uncertain environment has encouraged increased attention to the concept of model uncertainty, that is, uncertainty as to which is the best model.
Dow, Sheila, Sheila C. Dow
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