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Probabilistic property prediction
Engineering Fracture Mechanics, 2007Uncertainty must be characterized accurately for engineering applications because it arises from a number of sources each of which are exacerbated as the complexity increases. Having limited data also intensifies concerns about the uncertainty. Historically the design of structural components for high reliability applications has required an extensive ...
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Probabilistic Predictability of the MJO
Journal of the Atmospheric SciencesAbstract Studies of natural or intrinsic MJO predictability have typically estimated its limit at a fixed, single lead time. The interpretation of such a predictability limit has remained ambiguous. This study introduces a concept of probabilistic predictability, which defines MJO predictability in terms of the expected probability of
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A new probabilistic approach in predictive microbiology
2011In this thesis a new probabilistic model in predictive microbiology, the NPMPM, is presented. It is based on a new approach for including variability and uncertainty. The NPMPM was developed for risk assessment of bacterial contaminations in the food supply chain. It is introduced by the example of a contamination of the milk supply chain with Listeria
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A Probabilistic Prediction of beach nourishment evolution
2000A II level probabilistic analysis for predicting the lifetime of a beach nourishment project has been proposed. Considering that the new wider beach serves as shore protection by storms and to increase recreational benefits, it has been assumed that the beach reaches its failure state when its width becomes lower than a specified minimum.
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