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Regime Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities
Business Cycles, 2020Models incorporating nonlinearities associated with regime switching have a long tradition in empirical macroeconomics and dynamic econometrics. Key methodological contributions include the early work of Quandt (1958) and Goldfeld and Quandt (1973) and ...
F. Diebold, Joon-Haeng Lee, G. Weinbach
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Journal of the National Cancer Institute, 1989
To assist in medical counseling, we present a method to estimate the chance that a woman with given age and risk factors will develop breast cancer over a specified interval.
M. Gail +6 more
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To assist in medical counseling, we present a method to estimate the chance that a woman with given age and risk factors will develop breast cancer over a specified interval.
M. Gail +6 more
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, 1990
SUMMARY A causal network is used in a number of areas as a depiction of patterns of 'influence' among sets of variables. In expert systems it is common to perform 'inference' by means of local computations on such large but sparse networks.
S. Lauritzen, D. Spiegelhalter
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SUMMARY A causal network is used in a number of areas as a depiction of patterns of 'influence' among sets of variables. In expert systems it is common to perform 'inference' by means of local computations on such large but sparse networks.
S. Lauritzen, D. Spiegelhalter
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Statistics in Medicine, 1999
A topic that has received attention in both the statistical and medical literature is the estimation of the probability of failure for endpoints that are subject to competing risks.
T. Gooley +7 more
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A topic that has received attention in both the statistical and medical literature is the estimation of the probability of failure for endpoints that are subject to competing risks.
T. Gooley +7 more
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The probability of probability and research truths
Emergency Medicine Australasia, 2017AbstractThe foundation of much medical research rests on the statistical significance of the P‐value, but we have fallen prey to the seductive certainty of significance. Other scientific disciplines work to a different standard. This may partly explain why medical reversal is an increasing phenomenon, whereby new studies (based on the 0.05 standard ...
Daniel M Fatovich, Michael Phillips
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Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980
, 1982From the subjectivist point of view (de Finetti, 1937/1964), a probability is a degree of belief in a proposition. It expresses a purely internal state; there is no “right,” “correct,” or “objective” probability residing somewhere “in reality” against ...
S. Lichtenstein +2 more
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Expected Utility with Uncertain Probabilities Theory
, 2016This paper introduces a model of decision making under ambiguity by extending the Bayesian approach to uncertain probabilities. In this model, preferences for ambiguity pertain directly to probabilities such that attitude toward ambiguity is defined as ...
Yehuda Izhakian
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Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities
The Philosophical Review, 1976Abstract In this paper, the view that probabilities of conditionals are conditional probabilities is rejected on the grounds that there is no satisfactory way of interpreting a conditional connective such that the probabilities of conditionals will equal appropriate conditional probabilities.
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Probable Cause, Probability, and Hindsight
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2011When judges assess probable cause, they must do so either in foresight (when determining whether to issue a warrant) or in hindsight (when determining whether to allow the admission of evidence obtained without a search warrant). Although the legal standard for probable cause is the same, and the facts that might support cause are the same, judges who ...
Andrew J. Wistrich +2 more
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Probability and Probability Distribution
2017The theory of probability and statistics underlies all quantitative assessments relevant to pathology. Probability is a concept that occurs due to randomness. A random event or experiment has two main components of interest: the first is the “outcome” which is the result of the event that is being recorded. The second is “parameter” which is a constant
Jenny Libien +2 more
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