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The probability of conditionals: A review. [PDF]
Psychon Bull Rev, 2022 A major hypothesis about conditionals is the Equation in which the probability of a conditional equals the corresponding conditional probability: p(if A then C) = p(C|A). Probabilistic theories often treat it as axiomatic, whereas it follows from the meanings of conditionals in the theory of mental models. In this theory, intuitive models (system 1) do
López-Astorga M +2 more
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The probability of causal conditionals
Cognitive Psychology, 2006 Conditionals in natural language are central to reasoning and decision making. A theoretical proposal called the Ramsey test implies the conditional probability hypothesis: that the subjective probability of a natural language conditional, P(if p then q), is the conditional subjective probability, P(q/p).
David E. Over +4 more
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The Probabilities of Conditionals Revisited [PDF]
Cognitive Science, 2013 AbstractAccording to what is now commonly referred to as “the Equation” in the literature on indicative conditionals, the probability of any indicative conditional equals the probability of its consequent of the conditional given the antecedent of the conditional.
Igor Douven, Sara Verbrugge
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Probabilities of conditionals and previsions of iterated conditionals [PDF]
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2020 We analyze selected iterated conditionals in the framework of conditional random quantities. We point out that it is instructive to examine Lewis's triviality result, which shows the conditions a conditional must satisfy for its probability to be the conditional probability.
Giuseppe Sanfilippo +2 more
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PLACING PROBABILITIES OF CONDITIONALS IN CONTEXT
The Review of Symbolic Logic, 2014 AbstractIn this paper I defend the tenability of the Thesis that the probability of a conditional equals the conditional probability of the consequent given the antecedent. This is done by adopting the view that the interpretation of a conditional may differ from context to context.
Rosella Hermens
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pexm: A JAGS Module for Applications Involving the Piecewise Exponential Distribution
Journal of Statistical Software, 2021 In this study, we present a new module built for users interested in a programming language similar to BUGS to fit a Bayesian model based on the piecewise exponential (PE) distribution.
Vinícius D. Mayrink +2 more
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Revisiting the Conditional Construal of Conditional Probability
Logic and Logical Philosophy, 2022 We show how to extend any finite probability space into another finite one which satisfies the conditional construal of conditional probability for the original propositions, given some maximal allowed degree of nesting of the conditional. This mitigates the force of the well-known triviality results.
Jakub Węgrecki, Leszek Wroński
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Probabilities of conditionals: Updating Adams
Noûs, 2022 AbstractThe problem of probabilities of conditionals is one of the long‐standing puzzles in philosophy of language. We defend and update Adams' solution to the puzzle: the probability of an epistemic conditional is not the probability of a proposition, but a probability under a supposition.Close inspection of how a triviality result unfolds in a ...
Ciardelli I., Ommundsen A.
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The Journal of Privacy and Confidentiality, 2014 Recent research has raised questions about the structure and calculation of bounds on the underlying cell counts for a contingency table released in the form of conditional probabilities.
Stephen E. Wright, Byran J. Smucker
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The Probability of Iterated Conditionals [PDF]
Cognitive Science, 2014 AbstractIterated conditionals of the form If p, then if q, r are an important topic in philosophical logic. In recent years, psychologists have gained much knowledge about how people understand simple conditionals, but there are virtually no published psychological studies of iterated conditionals. This paper presents experimental evidence from a study
van Wijnbergen-Huitink, Janneke +2 more
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