Results 241 to 250 of about 3,477,506 (374)

The Impact of Uncertainty on Forecasting the US Economy

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper examines the predictive value of uncertainty measures for key macroeconomic indicators across multiple forecast horizons. We evaluate how different uncertainty proxies—economic policy uncertainty (EPU), VIX, geopolitical risk, and measures of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty—enhance forecast accuracy for industrial production,
Angelica Ghiselli
wiley   +1 more source

Evaluating Forecasts at Multiple Horizons: An Extension of the Diebold–Mariano Approach

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Forecast accuracy tests are fundamental tools for comparing competing predictive models. The widely used Diebold–Mariano (DM) test assesses whether differences in forecast errors are statistically significant. However, its standard form is limited to pairwise comparisons at a single forecast horizon.
Andrew Grant   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting With Dynamic Factor Models Estimated by Partial Least Squares

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Dynamic factor models (DFMs) have found great success in nowcasting and short‐term macroeconomic forecasting when incorporating large sets of predictive information. The factor loadings are typically estimated cross‐sectionally with principal component analysis (PCA) or maximum likelihood (ML), which ignore whether the factors have predictive ...
Samuel Rauhala
wiley   +1 more source

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