Results 41 to 50 of about 725,046 (113)

Volcanic Forcing Amplifies Extreme Wet‐to‐Dry in Pre‐Flood South China Driven by Internal Variability

open access: yesGeophysical Research Letters, Volume 53, Issue 11, 16 June 2026.
Abstract Dry‐wet whiplash events profoundly impact society and the environment, yet their attribution remain poorly understood. This study reveals that the unprecedented interannual wet‐to‐dry transition (return period: 979.2 years) in South China's 1962–1963 pre‐flood season is co‐driven by internal variability and volcanic forcing.
Qi Wen   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Large‐Scale Moisture Circulation Index Related to Socioeconomic Drought and Its Subseasonal Forecast Skill in the Asian Monsoon Rainy Season

open access: yesJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Volume 131, Issue 11, 16 June 2026.
Abstract Socioeconomic drought, which occurs when water demand exceeds available supply and often leads to water withdrawal restrictions, affects water resource management. However, the relationship between large‐scale moisture circulation and the occurrence of socioeconomic drought has not been well understood. In this study, we focused on the Yoshino
Yuta Tamaki, Noriko N. Ishizaki
wiley   +1 more source

The Multiscale Non‐Gaussian Statistics of Free‐Running 1000‐Member General Circulation Model Ensembles

open access: yesAtmospheric Science Letters, Volume 27, Issue 6, June 2026.
This study investigates the multiscale evolution of forecast distributions using 1000‐member global circulation model ensembles. Initially different distributions converge to the same time‐varying equilibrium distribution, and the equilibration time scale noticeably exceeds the variance saturation time. Prior to equilibration, the forecast distribution
Man‐Yau Chan   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Causal Effect Estimation With TMLE: Handling Missing Data and Near Violations of Positivity

open access: yesBiometrical Journal, Volume 68, Issue 3, June 2026.
ABSTRACT We evaluate the performance of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) for estimating the average treatment effect in missing data scenarios under varying levels of positivity violations. We employ model‐ and design‐based simulations, with the latter using undersmoothed highly adaptive lasso on the “WASH Benefits Bangladesh” data set to ...
Christoph Wiederkehr   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Gluing copulas [PDF]

open access: yes
We present a new way of constructing bivariate copulas, by recalling and gluing two (or more) copulas. Examples illustrate how this construction can be applied to build complicated copulas from simple ones. --
Siburg, Karl Friedrich   +1 more
core  

Bayesian Inference for Joint Estimation Models Using Copulas to Handle Endogenous Regressors

open access: yesOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 88, Issue 3, Page 519-534, June 2026.
ABSTRACT This study proposes a Bayesian approach for finite‐sample inference of the Gaussian copula endogeneity correction. Extant studies use frequentist inference, build on a priori computed estimates of marginal distributions of explanatory variables, and use bootstrapping to obtain standard errors. The proposed Bayesian approach facilitates precise
Rouven E. Haschka
wiley   +1 more source

Copulas in finance and insurance [PDF]

open access: yes
Copulas provide a potential useful modeling tool to represent the dependence structure among variables and to generate joint distributions by combining given marginal distributions. Simulations play a relevant role in finance and insurance. They are used
Elisa M. Molanes, Rosario Romera
core  

An Overview and Recent Developments in the Analysis of Multistate Processes

open access: yesStatistics in Medicine, Volume 45, Issue 10-12, May 2026.
ABSTRACT Multistate models offer a powerful framework for studying disease processes and can be used to formulate intensity‐based and more descriptive marginal regression models. They also represent a natural foundation for the construction of joint models for disease processes and dynamic marker processes, as well as joint models incorporating random ...
Malka Gorfine   +8 more
wiley   +1 more source

A Dynamic Model for Extreme Hourly Precipitation

open access: yesEnvironmetrics, Volume 37, Issue 3, April 2026.
ABSTRACT Despite the scarcity of comprehensive studies at a global scale, many regional analyses report increases in extreme hourly precipitation values. The growing interest in assessing trends in extreme hourly precipitation has outpaced the development of new statistical tools tailored to their features. Typical analyses employ Extreme Value Theory (
Debbie J. Dupuis   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Properties of Hierarchical Archimedean Copulas [PDF]

open access: yes
In this paper we analyse the properties of hierarchical Archimedean copulas. This class is a generalisation of the Archimedean copulas and allows for general non-exchangeable dependency structures. We show that the structure of the copula can be uniquely
Yarema Okhrin   +2 more
core  

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