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Real-time GDP Growth Forecasts [PDF]
The authors forecast current-quarter real GDP growth using monthly data that would have been available to an analyst in real time. They demonstrate that using real-time data is of major importance both when estimating GDP forecasting models and when evaluating their performance.
Evan F. Koenig, Sheila Dolmas
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Tracking World Trade and GDP in Real Time [PDF]
This paper proposes a simple procedure to obtain monthly assessments of short-run perspectives for quarterly world GDP and trade. It combines emerging and advanced countries’ high frequency information to explain quarterly national accounts variables through bridge models. The union of all bridge equations leads to our world bridge model (WBM). The WBM
GOLINELLI, ROBERTO, Giuseppe Parigi
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Teaching Chain-Weight Real GDP Measures [PDF]
Abstract In 1996, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) changed the method used to calculate measures of real GDP from a Laspeyres or Paasche index to a Fisher ideal index, also called a chain-weight index. Even though this is a significant change in approach and has resulted in extensive revisions of reported statistics, many authors of intermediate ...
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Systemic risk, real GDP growth, and sentiment
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 2021Using a mixed frequency VAR methodology, which can accommodate variables with different frequencies in a VAR framework, we model the relation between monthly systemic risk and real GDP growth. To identify the importance of business and consumer sentiment in this relation, a Kalman filter approach is adopted to extract the systemic risk-driven sentiment
Angelos Kanas, Panagiotis D. Zervopoulos
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