The Accuracy of Transit System Ridership Forecasts and Capital Cost Estimates
International journal of transport economics, 2009In 1992, Pickrell published a seminal piece examining the accuracy of ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates for fixed-guideway transit systems in the US. His research created heated discussions in the transit industry regarding the ability of transit planners to properly plan largescale transit systems.
Hardy, Matthew H. +9 more
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Market Segmentation Approach to Mode Choice and Ferry Ridership Forecasting
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2004The San Francisco Bay Area Water Transit Authority is evaluating expanded ferry service, as required by the California legislature. Predicting ferry ridership has historically been difficult because water-transit riders often choose their travel mode based on factors other than travel time and cost.
Outwater, M L +3 more
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Station-Level Forecasting of Bikesharing Ridership
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2013This study investigated the effects on bikesharing ridership levels of demographic and built environment characteristics near bikesharing stations in three operational U.S. systems. Although earlier studies focused on the analysis of a single system, the increasing availability of station-level ridership data has created the opportunity to compare ...
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Development and Application of a Revenue and Ridership Forecasting Model for Ferry Service
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1997A combination of statistical approaches is used to develop near-to mid-range ridership and revenue forecasting models for Washington State Ferries for use in quarterly budget updates. Econometric regression models use historical and forecast trends in state economic and demographic variables to project systemwide ridership by six fare categories for ...
T. Brent Baker, Raymond G. Deardorf
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Equilibrium Model Based on a Microfoundation for Forecasting Dial-a-Ride Ridership
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2001The demand and capacity of a van dial-a-ride service for elderly and disabled passengers are analyzed together. The service demand is based on a survey of an advanced public transit system for an elderly and disabled persons van service. Demand is estimated by the Poisson regression on individual demand and by aggregating over individuals in the ...
Benjamin, Julian M, Sakano, Ryoichi
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Subway Ridership Forecasting Using Seasonal and Holt-Winters Models with Calendar Effects
2025 International Conference on Computer, Information and Telecommunication Systems (CITS)Mohamed Saleh
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Simplifications for single-route transit-ridership forecasting models
Transportation, 1984The growth in popularity of microcomputers has reemphasized the need for simplified transit-planning techniques. This paper describes and evaluates a single-route ridership forecasting model which is designed to fit within a modest-sized microcomputer.
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Trust in forecasts? Correlates with ridership forecast accuracy for fixed-guideway transit projects
Transportation, 2019The accuracy of ridership forecasts for fixed-guideway transit projects in the United States has improved in recent decades. A better understanding of the causes for this improvement can help decision makers, project evaluators, and other forecast users identify ridership forecasts that are most likely to be reliable. The analysis in this paper applies
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BARTNet: Context-Aware Deep Learning Framework for BART Ridership Forecasting
2025 IEEE Conference on Artificial Intelligence (CAI)Leela Sai Rahul Suryadevara +4 more
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An investigation on the performances of mode shift models in transit ridership forecasting
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2015This paper aims at investigating the over-prediction of public transit ridership by traditional mode choice models estimated using revealed preference data. Five different types of models are estimated and analysed, namely a traditional Revealed Preference (RP) data-based mode choice model, a hybrid mode choice model with a latent variable, a Stated ...
Idris, Ahmed Osman +2 more
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