Results 241 to 250 of about 1,524,660 (310)

Increasing urban flash flood risk attributable to both climate and development

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
A new event impact attribution methodology that combines convection‐permitting climate model data with flood inundation modelling was used for a five‐hour flash‐flooding event in the suburbs of Leeds in 2014. The results show increased urban flood extent due to both climate change (+16%) and increased urbanisation (+29%).
Daniel F. Cotterill, Dann Mitchell, Peter A. Stott, Paul Bates, Youtong Rong, Leanne Archer   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Assimilation of Satellite-Based Snow Cover and Freeze/Thaw Observations Over High Mountain Asia. [PDF]

Front Earth Sci (Lausanne), 2019
Xue Y, Houser PR, Maggioni V, Mei Y, Kumar SV, Yoon Y.   +5 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Coupled observation‐operator approximations in outer‐loop coupling data assimilation

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We present a methodology for coupled variational data assimilation that allows the effect of coupled observation operators whilst maintaining separate minimisations across model components. This allows us to constrain the atmosphere, ocean, and sea‐ice components of our coupled model directly from satellite radiances. We illustrate the system in action
P. A. Browne, P. de Rosnay, A. J. Geer, S. Quesada‐Ruiz, T. Scanlon, E. Villeneuve   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Further development of adaptive parameter tuning in the numerical weather prediction models of Deutscher Wetterdienst

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The introduction of adaptive parameter tuning in the numerical weather prediction models of DWD in 2022 substantially improved the forecast quality of near‐surface variables like 2‐m temperature and 2‐m humidity. Since 2023, refinements and extensions, primarily affecting the surface evaporation and its diurnal cycle, have led to further advances ...
Günther Zängl
wiley   +1 more source

Evaluation and assimilation of Arctic Weather Satellite data in the AROME‐Arctic forecast system

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The Arctic Weather Satellite (AWS), launched in August 2024, is a prototype for the future EPS–Sterna constellation of small satellites carrying an innovative microwave sounder. We present the first assessment of AWS in the regional AROME‐Arctic numerical weather prediction system, covering post‐launch calibration results and the impact of AWS ...
Stéphanie Guedj, Per Dahlgren, Máté Mile   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Enhancing severe convection forecasts with microwave radiance assimilation in limited‐area models

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Microwave satellite radiances remain largely underexploited in convection‐permitting limited‐area models. We assess the assimilation of humidity‐sensitive radiances from the MHS instrument in the operational ICON‐2I model, improving the precipitation forecast of a severe convective event over the Marche region, Italy, substantially by correcting ...
Marcello Grenzi, Thomas Gastaldo, Virginia Poli, Chiara Marsigli, Tijana Janjic, Alberto Carrassi   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Evaluation of a stochastically perturbed parametrisations scheme for sea ice in sub‐seasonal forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Overconfident sea ice forecasts pose a challenge in subseasonal prediction. To test a potential way to address this issue and account for sea ice model uncertainty, this article investigates a stochastically perturbed parametrisations (SPP) scheme for sea ice in a prototype CY49R2 configuration of the coupled IFS‐NEMO4‐SI3 system. The results show that
Jonas Spaeth, Steffen Tietsche, Kristian Strommen, Michael Mayer, Andrea Storto, Christopher D. Roberts, Sarah‐Jane Lock, Sarah Keeley   +7 more
wiley   +1 more source

Synoptic and large‐scale drivers of extreme precipitation events in the Himalayas

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Months associated with maximum frequency of extreme precipitation events (EPEs). 6102 extreme precipitation days (i.e., exceeding 99th percentile for daily precipitation) occurred across the Karakoram, Western Himalayas (WH), Central Himalayas (CH) and Eastern Himalayas (EH) during 1979 to 2023.
Priya Bharati, Pranab Deb, Kieran M. R. Hunt   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Improving heavy precipitation forecasts through phase‐aware nonlinear bias correction of all‐sky infrared radiances using cloud top temperature differences

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study proposes a phase‐aware bias correction framework for all‐sky infrared radiance assimilation. Cloud top temperature differences between observations and model background fields are used to identify cloud‐phase mismatch and cold‐cloud regimes.
Jiwon Hwang, Dong‐Hyun Cha, Myong‐In Lee, SangSeo Park, Yonghan Choi, Ki‐Hong Min   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Revisiting bare‐ground evaporation in a high‐resolution numerical weather prediction system

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
An improved method is proposed to parameterize evaporation in numerical weather prediction models. The figure shows dew‐point temperature forecast error (standard deviation of forecast error and bias) versus lead time over the North Plains region during spring 2022 for three parameterizations: CTL, the α$$ \alpha $$ method of Jacquemin and Noilhan; IFS:
Vincent Fortin, Marc Verville, Vincent Vionnet, Marco Carrera, Dorothée Charpentier   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source