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A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory.
Kristóf Petrovay
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The ~11-year solar cycle was first identified in the fluctuation of the number and location of sunspots and, soon after, their magnetic polarity and the dipole component of the Sun’s magnetism as a whole. The cycle is manifested in satellite records of total and variable solar luminosity, in the open solar magnetic flux, which can be estimated from ...
J. Javaraiah +2 more
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Observation-based Iterative Map for Solar Cycles. I. Nature of Solar Cycle Variability
Intercycle variations in the series of 11 yr solar activity cycles have a significant impact on both the space environment and climate. Whether solar cycle variability is dominated by deterministic chaos or stochastic perturbations remains an open ...
Zi-Fan Wang, Jie Jiang, Jing-Xiu Wang
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The Sun’s magnetic field drives the solar wind and produces space weather. It also acts as the prototype for an understanding of other stars and their planetary environments. Plasma motions in the solar interior provide the dynamo action that generates the solar magnetic field.
van Driel-Gesztelyi, Lidia +1 more
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SOLAR CYCLE 25: ANOTHER MODERATE CYCLE? [PDF]
ABSTRACT Surface flux transport simulations for the descending phase of Cycle 24 using random sources (emerging bipolar magnetic regions) with empirically determined scatter of their properties provide a prediction of the axial dipole moment during the upcoming activity minimum together with a realistic uncertainty range. The expectation
R. H. Cameron, J. Jiang, M. Schüssler
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Solar rotation over solar cycle 21 [PDF]
Abstract Having measured the rotation rate of sunspots through solar cycle 21, from 1977 to 1983, we have found that the mean differential rotation averaged over this seven year record is similar to the grand average differential rotation determined by Howard et al. (1984) over the period 1921-1982.
Elisabeth Ribes +3 more
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Solar Cycle Variation in Solar Irradiance [PDF]
The correlation between solar irradiance and the 11-year solar activity cycle is evident in the body of measurements made from space, which extend over the past four decades. Models relating variation in solar irradiance to photospheric magnetism have made significant progress in explaining most of the apparent trends in these observations.
Yeo, K., Krivova, N., Solanki, S.
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Understanding Solar Cycle Variability [PDF]
Abstract The level of solar magnetic activity, as exemplified by the number of sunspots and by energetic events in the corona, varies on a wide range of timescales. Most prominent is the 11-year solar cycle, which is significantly modulated on longer timescales.
R. H. Cameron, M. Schüssler
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AbstractWe describe the defining observations of the solar cycle that provide constraints for the dynamo processes operating within the Sun. Specifically, we report on the following topics: historical sunspot numbers and revisions; active region (AR) flux ranges and lifetimes; bipolar magnetic region tilt angles; Hale and Joy’s law; the impact of rogue
Aimee Norton +3 more
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Solar Cycle Dependence of Solar p Modes [PDF]
Data obtained at Izana (Tenerife) and Haleakala (Maui), using optical resonant scattering with a potassium vapour cell over the years 1980–84, are used to determine the frequencies of the low ℓ p modes. Possible variation in these frequencies with the solar cycle are investigated.
G.R. Isaak +7 more
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