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Solar Cycle Prediction [PDF]

Living Reviews in Solar Physics, 2010
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory.
Kristóf Petrovay
doaj   +11 more sources

Forecasting the number of sunspots for solar cycle 25 utilizing the facebook prophet model [PDF]

Scientific Reports
The solar cycle, also referred to as the solar magnetic activity cycle, represents a nearly periodic change in solar activity occurring approximately every 11 years, as evidenced by the observation of sunspot numbers.
H. I. Abdel Rahman, W. A. Badawy
doaj   +2 more sources

Are solar cycles predictable? [PDF]

Astronomische Nachrichten, 2007
Various methods (or recipes) have been proposed to predict future solar activity levels - with mixed success. Among these, some precursor methods based upon quantities determined around or a few years before solar minimum have provided rather high ...
Balmaceda, Brandenburg, Bushby, Cameron, Choudhuri, Dikpati, Dikpati, Echer, Harvey, Harvey, Hathaway, Hathaway, Hathaway, Lantos, Lantos, Layden, Legrand, Li, Ohl, Schatten, Schatten, Schatten, Sello, Solanki, Svalgaard, Thompson, Waldmeier, Wilson   +27 more
core   +3 more sources

Improvement of solar cycle prediction: Plateau of solar axial dipole moment [PDF]

Astronomy & Astrophysics, 2017
Aims. We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods. We measure the axial dipole moment using the photospheric
Hotta, H., Iijima, H., Imada, S., Kusano, K., Shiota, D.   +4 more
core   +2 more sources

Towards an algebraic method of solar cycle prediction [PDF]

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 2020
An algebraic method for the reconstruction and potentially prediction of the solar dipole moment value at sunspot minimum (known to be a good predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle) was suggested in the first paper in this series.
Nagy Melinda, Petrovay Kristóf, Lemerle Alexandre, Charbonneau Paul   +3 more
doaj   +5 more sources

Solar Cycle Prediction at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center

Space Weather
Predicting the level of solar activity years or even decades into the future has been both one of the most pressing and one of the most formidable challenges of space weather forecasting since its scientific origins over a century ago.
Mark S. Miesch
doaj   +2 more sources

Prediction of even and odd sunspot cycles

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 2023
Here we study the prediction of even and odd numbered sunspot cycles separately, thereby taking into account the Hale cyclicity of solar magnetism. We first show that the temporal evolution and shape of all sunspot cycles are extremely well-described by ...
Asikainen Timo, Mantere Jani
doaj   +1 more source

NONLINEAR PREDICTION OF SOLAR CYCLE 24 [PDF]

The Astrophysical Journal, 2009
Accepted by ...
Kilcik, A., Anderson, C. N. K., Rozelot, J. P., Ye, H., Sugihara, G., Ozguc, A.   +5 more
openaire   +3 more sources

Prediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 using polar faculae observations

Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 2021
Based on the monthly number of polar faculae, a forecast of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 (SC25) is provided, as well as a prediction of the number of solar flares.
Janssens Jan
doaj   +1 more source

On the Prediction of Solar Cycles [PDF]

Solar Physics, 2021
AbstractThis article deals with the prediction of the upcoming solar activity cycle, Solar Cycle 25. We propose that astronomical ephemeris, specifically taken from the catalogs of aphelia of the four Jovian planets, could be drivers of variations in solar activity, represented by the series of sunspot numbers (SSN) from 1749 to 2020.
V. Courtillot, F. Lopes, J. L. Le Mouël
openaire   +2 more sources