Results 181 to 190 of about 74,950 (301)

DSGE Model Forecasting: Rational Expectations Versus Adaptive Learning

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper compares within‐sample and out‐of‐sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets, and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real‐time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1–2019Q4.
Anders Warne
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting With Dynamic Factor Models Estimated by Partial Least Squares

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Dynamic factor models (DFMs) have found great success in nowcasting and short‐term macroeconomic forecasting when incorporating large sets of predictive information. The factor loadings are typically estimated cross‐sectionally with principal component analysis (PCA) or maximum likelihood (ML), which ignore whether the factors have predictive ...
Samuel Rauhala
wiley   +1 more source

Point and Risk estImation Using an enSemble of Models for Nowcasting: PRISM‐Now

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We propose PRISM‐Now, a novel ensemble forecasting system for near‐term GDP projection. Recognizing that relevant economic information evolves over time, we treat forecasts from multiple base models as draws from a mixture distribution of “good” and “bad” estimates, whose composition changes continuously and cannot be identified ex ante.
Beomseok Seo, Hyungbae Cho, Dongjae Lee
wiley   +1 more source

The Role of Coincident Information in Real‐Time Business Cycle Forecasting

Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Official NBER recession dates are announced with substantial delay. Therefore, real‐time forecasters cannot condition on the most recent business cycle states even though recessions and expansions are highly persistent. I study whether real‐time coincident releases can substitute for this missing information. At each monthly forecast origin, I
Visa Kuntze
wiley   +1 more source

A Comprehensive Review on the Significance, Sources, and Applications of Virtual Water on Global Platform

Food Safety and Health, EarlyView.
A conceptual framework of virtual water showing its sources, major applications, components of the virtual water footprint, and emerging future directions. The diagram emphasizes the growing role of virtual water in global sustainability and resource planning.
Priti Bhowmik, Charu Rajpal, Vinay Kumar Pandey   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

On the Comovement of Contango and Backwardation Across Futures Commodity Markets

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We examine the time‐varying nature of the comovement of the slope of the futures curve in major agricultural, metals and energy commodity futures markets in a Global Vector Autoregressive model. We find significant comovement between the slopes, indicating the co‐existence of backwardation and contango in many seemingly unrelated commodity ...
Angelo Luisi, Francesco Roccazzella, Athanasios Triantafyllou   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Quadratic Hedging of American Options Under GARCH Models

Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT American options are widely traded in financial markets, yet there is a scarcity of literature on hedging in incomplete markets. In this paper, we derive optimal hedging ratios and option values using Local Risk Minimization (LRM) and Global Risk Minimization (GRM) hedging strategies through dynamic programming.
Junmei Ma, Chen Wang, Wei Xu
wiley   +1 more source

The Impact of Democratization and Globalization on Environmental Sustainability in Brazil

Geological Journal, EarlyView.
Fossil fuel, economic globalisation, and economic growth drive environmental degradation while democratisation positively influences environmental quality. ABSTRACT Although Brazil still possesses significant ecological reserves, the surplus in its biocapacity has been rapidly declining in recent years.
Mustafa Naimoğlu, Mehmet Metin Dam, Serdar Ongan, Andrew Adewale Alola   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Maximum likelihood estimation of matrix exponential spatial specification on seemingly unrelated regression-spatial autoregressive model. [PDF]

MethodsX
Marsono, Setiawan, Kuswanto H.
europepmc   +1 more source

Analysing the Drivers of Cropland Footprint in Leading Agricultural Nations: Evidence From MMQR Approach

Geological Journal, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Climate change represents the biggest current challenge for us and for future generations. Its impact on agriculture is undeniable, considering the food security goal. Thus, the cropland footprint has been distinguished as a comprehensive index for assessing the impact of environmental changes in agricultural areas determined by the increased ...
Ibrahim Cutcu, Magdalena Radulescu
wiley   +1 more source