Results 171 to 180 of about 6,222,733 (331)

Moist convection and radiative cooling: Dynamical response and scaling

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The mechanism that sets the updraught velocities in deep convective clouds is studied here using cloud‐resolving model simulations in radiative–convective equilibrium. We show that, for simulations with vastly different rates of radiative cooling and surface temperatures, the buoyancy in clouds remains remarkably constant (histogram shown here).
Lokahith Agasthya, Caroline Muller
wiley   +1 more source

Fuzzy postprocessing of seasonal climate forecasts for semiarid river basins

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Meteorological forecasts from AI‐based fuzzy rule‐based system (FRB) are compared to linear scaling (LS) and quantile mapping (QM). Seasonal forecasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) are considered. Results show that the highest skill is achieved for the FRB approach.
Dariana Isamel Avila‐Velasquez   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regime forecasting: A statistical–dynamical approach

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study explores how the atmospheric state at initialisation creates windows of opportunity for improving week 3 forecasts of weather regime activity. Greenland blocking activity increases following Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 7, 8, and 1 and weak stratospheric polar vortex states, revealing patterns exploitable by statistical models.
Fabian Mockert   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

A pilot variational coupled reanalysis based on the CESAM climate model

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Variational data assimilation of in‐situ and satellite ocean data and reanalysis atmospheric data into an intermediate complexity Earth system model is possible by adjusting the surface fluxes and internal model parameters. This pilot application requires nearly complete information on the atmospheric state for synchronization.
Armin Köhl   +6 more
wiley   +1 more source

The role of soil moisture in the inland penetration of Indian monsoon low‐pressure systems

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We use the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting model to examine the role of soil moisture in the inland penetration of Indian monsoon low‐pressure systems (LPSs). We find that LPSs penetrate deeply into India despite a dry land surface; however, their inland penetration is adversely affected when there is a reduction in the total surface heat ...
Akshay Deoras   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Assessing the impact of model biases on subseasonal forecast skill

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Relaxation experiments where the nudging was performed towards bias‐corrected integrations of the same model display significantly improved skill at weeks 3 and 4, particularly in the northern extratropics. This indicates that there is a large potential for improving dynamical subseasonal forecasting skill by improved treatment of model biases.
Frédéric Vitart, Magdalena Balmaseda
wiley   +1 more source

Moisture and wind effects of Rossby waves on Western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone breakdown events

open access: yesQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
(a) Organized convection: clouds are clustered at the southern edge of the domain, aligning with the warmest SST. Northeasterly winds prevail, facilitating convection confinement to the southern part of the domain. (b) ITCZ breakdown: the clouds are spread throughout the domain.
Alejandro Casallas   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns, and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity [PDF]

open access: yes
Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies.
Meyer, Kerry   +3 more
core   +1 more source

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