Results 71 to 80 of about 7,657 (248)

The relationship between seasonal mean temperature and most extreme day

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
In Northern Hemisphere winter, there is a strong correlation between seasonal mean temperature and coldest daily mean temperature which varies in magnitude from one region to another (with a weaker relationship in summer between mean and hottest day).
Anna Maidens, Hazel E. Thornton, Philip Bett‐Williams, Doug Smith   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

The non‐hydrostatic option of the ECMWF global weather forecast model: Improvements for kilometre‐scale modelling

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study presents improvements to the non‐hydrostatic version of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), enabling stable global simulations at 1.4‐km resolution. A systematic comparison with the hydrostatic version at resolutions from 9 to 1.4 km shows that non‐hydrostatic effects emerge in ...
Jozef Vivoda, Inna Polichtchouk, Michail Diamantakis, Filip Váňa   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

How consistently do ensemble prediction systems represent the growth of atmospheric uncertainty?

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Spread‐based diagnostics calculated for 12 ensemble prediction systems are compared to understand the consistency with which they represent atmospheric uncertainty growth. Good correlation between all these systems is found in the extratropics for a lead time range from 48 hr to between 96 hr and 192 hr.
Douglas Wood, Suzanne Gray, John Methven, Mark Rodwell   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Chlorine peroxide reaction explains observed wintertime hydrogen chloride in the Antarctic vortex

Communications Earth & Environment
It is well established that the drastic ozone loss in the Antarctic stratosphere, commonly known as the ozone hole, is primarily driven by gas-phase and heterogeneous chemical processes. While chemistry transport models generally reproduce observed ozone
Jens-Uwe Grooß, Rolf Müller, John N. Crowley, Michaela I. Hegglin   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

A dynamics-based separation of deep and shallow stratospheric circulation branches [PDF]

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
The wave-driven Brewer–Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in determining the transport of trace gases and aerosols in the stratosphere. We examine the structure of the circulation based on reanalysis data (ERA5, ERA-Interim, MERRA2, and JRA55) and ...
R. Baikhadzhaev, F. Ploeger, F. Ploeger, P. Preusse, M. Ern, T. Birner, T. Birner   +6 more
doaj   +1 more source

NASA GEOS Composition Forecast Modeling System GEOS‐CF v1.0: Stratospheric Composition

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2022
The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Composition Forecast (GEOS‐CF) provides recent estimates and 5‐day forecasts of atmospheric composition to the public in near‐real time.
K. E. Knowland, C. A. Keller, P. A. Wales, K. Wargan, L. Coy, M. S. Johnson, J. Liu, R. A. Lucchesi, S. D. Eastham, E. Fleming, Q. Liang, T. Leblanc, N. J. Livesey, K. A. Walker, L. E. Ott, S. Pawson   +15 more
doaj   +1 more source

Stratospheric and tropospheric seasonality and its implications for observation requirements in numerical weather prediction

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Daily time series of zonal‐mean zonal wind (m·s−1) at 10 hPa and 60° N from 1950 to 2021 from the ERA5 reanalysis. This shows huge variability in some seasons and very little in others. We provide evidence that high‐level observations, radiosonde and satellite, are more important during the extended winter season with its very large variability ...
Bruce Ingleby, Inna Polichtchouk
wiley   +1 more source

Stratospheric predictability and sudden stratospheric warming events [PDF]

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2009
A comparative study of the limit of predictability in the stratosphere and troposphere in a coupled general circulation model is carried out using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Interactive Ensemble (CFSIE).
Cristiana Stan, David M. Straus
openaire   +1 more source

An opportunity index to anticipate when subseasonal predictions are useful

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Simultaneously active subseasonal windows of forecast opportunity can be combined into a single opportunity index, which can be used operationally to anticipate enhanced or reduced subseasonal prediction skill. For predictions of temperature anomalies in Switzerland during summer—a region and season with particularly low predictability—skill can nearly
Dominik Büeler, Maria Pyrina, Adel Imamovic, Christoph Spirig, Daniela I. V. Domeisen   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Diagnosing the 11‐year solar cycle's influence on the East Atlantic pattern

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
A previously unidentified solar‐cycle response in the East Atlantic pattern is found in late winter at lag +3 years with larger amplitude than the NAO response. A statistically significant NAO response to the solar cycle is seen in late winter at lag 0 years.
Stergios Misios, Paula L. M. Gonzalez, Lesley J. Gray, Scott Osprey, Hedi Ma   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source