International Journal of Climatology, Volume 46, Issue 5, April 2026.The ability to predict climate fluctuations at seasonal timescales offers significant socio‐economic benefits. However, limited understanding of predictability mechanisms and model errors hinders forecast quality. Recent research has improved forecasting systems and data quality.
Gualdi Silvio +12 more
wiley +1 more source
Analysis of gravity wave activity during stratospheric sudden warmings in the northern hemisphere
Earth and Planetary PhysicsDue to the significant changes they bring to high latitude stratospheric temperature and wind, stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) can have an impact on the propagation and energy distribution of gravity waves (GWs). The variation characteristics of GWs
XuanYun Zeng, Guang Zhong
doaj +1 more source
The genesis of sudden stratospheric warmings and the quasi-biennial cycles [PDF]
Genesis of sudden stratospheric warmings and quasi-biennial ...
Smith, J. W.
core +1 more source
Predicting sudden stratospheric warming 2018 and its climate impacts with a multi‐model ensemble [PDF]
, 2018 Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are significant source of enhanced subseasonal predictability, but whether this source is untapped in operational models remains an open question.
Balmaseda, Magdalena +4 more
core +1 more source
Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation, Volume 3, Issue 2, April 2026.Abstract The variational autoencoder (VAE), a deep generative model, can extract a good feature representation for clustering from complex data; however, the use of this algorithm in the geophysical fluid circulation has been limited. The sample size for a geophysical phenomenon is generally small because of a large dimensional size, especially for ...
Kunihiro Aoki +7 more
wiley +1 more source
Three-dimensional model study of the Arctic ozone loss in 2002/2003 and comparison with 1999/2000 and 2003/2004 [PDF]
, 2004 We have used the SLIMCAT 3-D off-line chemical transport model (CTM) to quantify the Arctic chemical ozone loss in the year 2002/2003 and compare it with similar calculations for the winters 1999/2000 and 2003/2004.
Blavier, Jean-François +13 more
core +4 more sources
Which Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Are Most Predictable? [PDF]
J Geophys Res Atmos, 2022 Chwat D, Garfinkel CI, Chen W, Rao J.
europepmc +1 more source
How predictable are sudden stratospheric warmings?
, 2023 Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) can have a significant downward impact on surface weather, which can last for a few weeks to months, a better understanding of the predictability and the mechanisms of SSW can potentially enhance surface weather prediction in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale.
openaire +3 more sources
Response to Limited surface impacts of the January 2021 sudden stratospheric warming. [PDF]
Nat Commun, 2023 Cohen J +4 more
europepmc +1 more source
Development of algorithms for using satellite meteorological data sets to study global transport of stratospheric aerosols and ozone [PDF]
The utilization of stratospheric aerosol and ozone measurements obtained from the NASA developed SAM II and SAGE satellite instruments were investigated for their global scale transports.
Deepak, A., Want, P. H.
core +1 more source