Results 111 to 120 of about 4,896 (264)

Assessing the impact of model biases on subseasonal forecast skill

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Relaxation experiments where the nudging was performed towards bias‐corrected integrations of the same model display significantly improved skill at weeks 3 and 4, particularly in the northern extratropics. This indicates that there is a large potential for improving dynamical subseasonal forecasting skill by improved treatment of model biases.
Frédéric Vitart, Magdalena Balmaseda
wiley   +1 more source

All‐sky assimilation impacts of the Tomorrow.io microwave sounder constellation on global weather forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Key Findings: An assimilation methodology is established for the Tomorrow.io microwave sounder (TMS) flying on CubeSats in sun‐synchronous and inclined orbits, and in all cloud scenes. The TMS has a significant impact on weather forecast lead times up to 3 days in the Tropics in a research‐quality numerical weather prediction setting, and yields water ...
Jonathan J. Guerrette, Ryan Honeyager, Stephen Joseph Munchak, Xiaoxu Tian   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

An objective Bayesian method for including parameter uncertainty in ensemble model output statistics

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Conventional model output statistics and ensemble model output statistics methods for calibrating ensemble forecasts lead to severe underestimation of the probabilities of ensemble extremes (in blue). This is because they ignore statistical parameter uncertainty.
Stephen Jewson, Leonardo Olivetti, Gabriele Messori, Paul J. Northrop, Trevor Sweeting   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Forecast verification using information and noise

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Verification of weather forecasts is usually expressed in terms of total error metrics. This is useful for end users of the forecasts but does not allow evaluation of the intrinsic information content of the forecasts. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new total error decomposition into information and noise error measures, connect it to ...
Massimo Bonavita, Alan J. Geer
wiley   +1 more source

Assimilation of solar‐induced fluorescence satellite observations in the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts integrated forecast system

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This work demonstrates the potential of the assimilation of satellite solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) retrievals at eight‐day and 0.1° resolutions in the integrated forecast system (IFS), developed at the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), at global scale, to provide a more realistic representation of the vegetation temporal ...
Sébastien Garrigues, Patricia de Rosnay, Peter Weston, Christoph Rüdiger, Cédric Bacour, David Fairbairn, Pierre Vanderbecken, Oscar Rojas‐Munoz, Ewan Pinnington, Anna Agusti‐Panareda, Souhail Boussetta, Jean‐Christophe Calvet, Richard Engelen   +12 more
wiley   +1 more source

Mesoscale and microphysical processes leading to extreme hourly rainfall prior to the merger of two mesoscale convective systems in Central China

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Short‐term extreme rainfall can be produced by the variation of low‐level warm moist airflow during mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) approaching another. The cold outflow of the rapidly moving MCS intensifies the warm moist airflow in front, enhancing the convergence and ascending motion in the quasi‐stationary MCS.
Xiaoyu Gao, Yali Luo, Jinfang Yin, Chong Wu   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Exceptionally poor and good medium‐range forecasts of the large‐scale circulation over Europe in ERA5 reforecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study investigates year‐round exceptionally poor and good day‐6 forecasts of the 500‐hPa geopotential height field over Europe using 45 years of ERA5 reforecasts and applies a weather regime perspective to analyse large‐scale pattern evolution and regime transitions.
Seraphine Hauser, Steven M. Cavallo, Linus Magnusson, Jonathan E. Martin, David B. Parsons   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

A composite‐loss graph neural network for the multivariate post‐processing of ensemble weather forecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The dual graph neural network (dualGNN), trained with a composite loss combining the energy score (ES) and variogram score (VS), consistently outperformed models optimized solely for ES or the continuous ranked probability score in the multivariate setting, as well as empirical copula approaches.
Mária Lakatos
wiley   +1 more source

Moisture and wind effects of Rossby waves on Western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone breakdown events

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
(a) Organized convection: clouds are clustered at the southern edge of the domain, aligning with the warmest SST. Northeasterly winds prevail, facilitating convection confinement to the southern part of the domain. (b) ITCZ breakdown: the clouds are spread throughout the domain.
Alejandro Casallas, Adrian Mark Tompkins, Caroline Muller   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Infrared land surface emissivity dynamics in the Taklimakan desert from 2001 to 2023. [PDF]

Sci Rep
Ma Y, Mamtimin A, Zeng K, Aihaiti A, Liu J, Liu Z.   +5 more
europepmc   +1 more source