Results 11 to 20 of about 63,697 (261)
International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2022 AbstractIn this article, we estimate trend inflation in Sweden using an unobserved components stochastic volatility model. Using data from 1995Q4 to 2022Q1 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well‐anchored during the period—although in general at a level below the inflation target—and it does not appear to have been ...
Pär Österholm, Aubrey Poon
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The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation [PDF]
Journal of Economic Literature, 2013 Most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero-inflation steady state, but most central banks target inflation at a rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on monetary policy.
Ascari, G, Sbordone, A
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A New Model of Trend Inflation [PDF]
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2012 This paper introduces a new model of trend (or underlying) inflation. In contrast to many earlier approaches, which allow for trend inflation to evolve according to a random walk, ours is a bounded model which ensures that trend inflation is constrained to lie in an interval.
Chan, Joshua +2 more
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Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation [PDF]
IMF Working Papers, 2018 This paper incorporates market-based inflation expectations to the growing literature on trend inflation estimation, and finds that there has been a significant decline in euro area trend inflation since 2013. This finding is robust to using different measures of long-term inflation expectations in the estimation, both market-based and surveys.
Poon, Aubrey, Garcia, Juan Angel
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Core Inflation and Trend Inflation [PDF]
Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016 Abstract This paper examines empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to construct indexes akin to core inflation but with a time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends on the timevarying volatility and persistence of the sectoral inflation ...
James H. Stock, Mark W. Watson
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Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies [PDF]
Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2013 We derive estimates of trend inflation for fourteen advanced economies from a framework in which trend shocks exhibit stochastic volatility. The estimated specification allows for time-variation in the degree to which longer-term inflation expectations are well anchored in each economy.
Elmar Mertens +2 more
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Global factors and trend inflation [PDF]
Journal of International Economics, 2019 Abstract We develop an empirical model to study the influence of global factors in driving trend inflation and the inflation gap. We apply our model to 7 developed economies and 21 emerging market economies. Our results suggest that while global factors can have a sizeable influence on the inflation gap, they play only a marginal role in driving ...
Gunes Kamber, Benjamin Wong
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Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy [PDF]
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2009 Even low levels of trend inflation substantially affect the dynamics of a basic new Keynesian DSGE model when monetary policy is conducted by a contemporaneous Taylor rule. Positive trend inflation shrinks the determinacy region. Neither the Taylor principle, which requires the inflation coefficient to be greater than one, nor the generalized Taylor ...
ASCARI, GUIDO, Ropele Tiziano
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International Inflation Trends [PDF]
Economic Synopses, 2021 Expected inflation rates have risen in many countries after fiscal and monetary stimulus helped economies recover from the COVID-19 lockdown.
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Emerging trends: Inflation [PDF]
Natural Language Engineering, 2017 AbstractOur field has enjoyed amazing growth over the years. Is this a good thing or a bad thing, or just a thing? Good: Growth sounds good. It is hard to imagine a politician arguing against jobs. There are more people working in the field than ever before, and they are publishing more and more, and creating more and more value.
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