Results 51 to 60 of about 15,877 (307)

Subseasonal Predictability of Weekly Rainfall and Rainy Season Onset Over East Africa

International Journal of Climatology, EarlyView.
This study evaluates the subseasonal predictability of weekly rainfall and rainy season onset over East Africa using the ECMWF extended range forecast model. Results show strong skill in forecasting weekly rainfall up to 4 weeks ahead, with higher accuracy during the March–May ‘long rains’ season.
Emmah Mwangi, Innocent Masukwedza, Dominic Kniveton, Martin C. Todd   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Evaluating western North Pacific tropical cyclone forecast in the subseasonal to seasonal prediction project database

Frontiers in Earth Science, 2023
The Daily Tropical Cyclone Probability (DTCP), defined as the probability of tropical cyclone occurrence within 500 km of a location in 1 day, is proposed and used in evaluating subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictions from the subseasonal to seasonal ...
Xiaochun Wang, Duane Waliser, Xianan Jiang, Shakeel Asharaf, Shakeel Asharaf, Frederic Vitart, Weihua Jie   +6 more
doaj   +1 more source

Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP

, 2007
Most seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm numbers are produced using statistical-empirical models. However, forecasts can also be made using numerical models which encode the laws of physics, here referred to as “dynamical models”.
Huddleston, MR, Deque, M, Peake, D, Palmer, Tim, A. Weisheimer, F. Vitart, M. K. Davey, Davey, MK, Ineson, S, S. Ineson, T. N. Palmer, Weisheimer, Antje, M. R. Huddleston, D. Peake, Palmer, TN, Weisheimer, A, Vitart, F, T. N. Stockdale, Stockdale, TN, M. Déqué   +19 more
core   +1 more source

Mineral profile of cocoa powder: Analytical approach in commercial samples

Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture, EarlyView.
Abstract BACKGROUND Cocoa powder is widely used in the food industry and has high nutritional value due to its composition, including minerals. The main factors related to the presence of minerals in cocoa powder are soil, processing, and cultivation practices.
Mateus Barbosa Silva, Herick Macedo Santos, Joane Cristina Costa Pereira, Heliara Caires Sousa, Raildo Mota de Jesus, Danilo Junqueira Leão, Leandro Soares Santos, Sibelli Passini Barbosa Ferrão   +7 more
wiley   +1 more source

Previously Neglected Effects of Strong Horizontal Winds on Raindrop Collisions in Tropical Cyclones

Geophysical Research Letters
Persistent strong winds are a common feature within the near‐surface layer of tropical cyclones, which can induce pronounced horizontal motion as raindrops descend.
Lin Deng, Xuwei Bao, Istvan Geresdi, Lulin Xue, Wei Huang, Yang Zhao, Wanchen Wu, Tiantian Li   +7 more
doaj   +1 more source

Polar‐low track prediction using machine‐learning methods

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Machine‐learning models are developed to produce reliable and efficient forecasts of polar‐low (PL) trajectories 12 hours ahead. A temporal model (RLSTM) benefiting from the rolling‐forecast strategy, improves overall prediction accuracy and is suitable for quick experimentation, while a spatiotemporal model (PL‐UNet), incorporating both historical and
Ziying Yang, Rune Grand Graversen, Filippo Maria Bianchi, Jiping Liu, Ruibo Lei   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

How consistently do ensemble prediction systems represent the growth of atmospheric uncertainty?

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Spread‐based diagnostics calculated for 12 ensemble prediction systems are compared to understand the consistency with which they represent atmospheric uncertainty growth. Good correlation between all these systems is found in the extratropics for a lead time range from 48 hr to between 96 hr and 192 hr.
Douglas Wood, Suzanne Gray, John Methven, Mark Rodwell   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Climate change exacerbates hurricane flood hazards along US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in spatially varying patterns

Nature Communications, 2019
Tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding will increase under climate change. Here the authors estimate the effects of sea level rise and tropical cyclone climatology change on late–21st–century flood hazards along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and ...
Reza Marsooli, Ning Lin, Kerry Emanuel, Kairui Feng   +3 more
doaj   +1 more source

Uncertainties and sensitivities in the quantification of future tropical cyclone risk

Communications Earth & Environment, 2023
Tropical cyclone risks are expected to increase with climate change and socio-economic development and are subject to substantial uncertainties.
Simona Meiler, Alessio Ciullo, Chahan M. Kropf, Kerry Emanuel, David N. Bresch   +4 more
doaj   +1 more source

A new method to identify and explain sources of precipitation modification, illustrated for the western Netherlands

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study develops a method to identify the source areas of precipitation events, as illustrated for the western part of the Netherlands. Radar‐based precipitation data are traced back to their source areas and machine‐learning techniques are used to identify hypothesized causes: urban heat, surface roughness, and air pollution. We find that urban and
Jelmer van der Graaff, Gert‐Jan Steeneveld   +1 more
wiley   +1 more source