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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions.
Caggiano, Giovanni, Castelnuovo, Efrem
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We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions.
Caggiano, Giovanni, Castelnuovo, Efrem
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Communications of the ACM, 2019
Considering how to best navigate stability and randomness.
Peter J. Denning, Ted G. Lewis
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Considering how to best navigate stability and randomness.
Peter J. Denning, Ted G. Lewis
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Cognition, 1982 Abstract In contrast to formal theories of judgement and decision, which employ a single notion of probability, psychological analyses of responses to uncertainty reveal a wide variety of processes and experiences, which may follow different rules. Elementary forms of expectation and surprise in perception are reviewed. A phenomenological analysis is
Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman
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The uncertainty tree: Reducing the uncertainty of uncertainty analysis
Review of Scientific Instruments, 2002Uncertainty analysis is an integral aspect of experimental measurements, though accurately assessing the flow of uncertainty in a measurement system—particularly for complicated systems with more than a few variables—can become a challenging, error-prone task, while being less enjoyable than it should be.
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2012
‘To teach how to live without certainty, and yet without being paralysed by hesitation, is perhaps the chief thing that philosophy, in our age, can still do for those who study it’ (Russell, 1946, p. 14).
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‘To teach how to live without certainty, and yet without being paralysed by hesitation, is perhaps the chief thing that philosophy, in our age, can still do for those who study it’ (Russell, 1946, p. 14).
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019
AbstractThis article investigates the impact and transmission of uncertainty regarding the future path of government finances on economic activity. Employing a data‐rich approach, I introduce a novel proxy that captures uncertainty surrounding public finances, which I refer to as sovereign uncertainty.
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AbstractThis article investigates the impact and transmission of uncertainty regarding the future path of government finances on economic activity. Employing a data‐rich approach, I introduce a novel proxy that captures uncertainty surrounding public finances, which I refer to as sovereign uncertainty.
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Uncertainty of uncertainty and accounting conservatism
Finance Research Letters, 2022Xin Cui +3 more
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