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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2022
Nous proposons un nouveau cadre empirique qui permet de décomposer simultanément la variance conditionnelle des séries chronologiques de données économiques en deux facteurs : l’incertitude agrégée et l’incertitude sectorielle. Nous appliquons notre cadre à un vaste ensemble de données désagrégées relatives à la production industrielle aux États-Unis ...
Castelnuovo, Efrem +2 more
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Nous proposons un nouveau cadre empirique qui permet de décomposer simultanément la variance conditionnelle des séries chronologiques de données économiques en deux facteurs : l’incertitude agrégée et l’incertitude sectorielle. Nous appliquons notre cadre à un vaste ensemble de données désagrégées relatives à la production industrielle aux États-Unis ...
Castelnuovo, Efrem +2 more
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Visualizing Uncertainty with Uncertainty Multiples
GeoCongress 2006, 2006It is difficult to depict uncertainty graphically. Conventional means, which rely on mapping uncertainty to graphical attributes in an image, have limited effectiveness because they require presenting additional variables and are not generally intuitive. The concept of uncertainty multiples is proposed herein to address these challenges.
Gilbert, Robert B. +4 more
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021
We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions.
Caggiano, Giovanni, Castelnuovo, Efrem
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We estimate a novel measure of global financial uncertainty (GFU) with a dynamic factor framework that jointly models global, regional, and country-specific factors. We quantify the impact of GFU shocks on global output with a VAR analysis that achieves set-identification via a combination of narrative, sign, ratio, and correlation restrictions.
Caggiano, Giovanni, Castelnuovo, Efrem
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Science and Engineering Ethics, 2009
In contemporary science uncertainty is often represented as an intrinsic feature of natural and of human phenomena. As an example we need only think of two important conceptual revolutions that occurred in physics and logic during the first half of the twentieth century: (1) the discovery of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics; (2 ...
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In contemporary science uncertainty is often represented as an intrinsic feature of natural and of human phenomena. As an example we need only think of two important conceptual revolutions that occurred in physics and logic during the first half of the twentieth century: (1) the discovery of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle in quantum mechanics; (2 ...
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2014
This chapter deals with the various mathematical translation of the polysemous concepts of uncertainty and proposes some heterodox approaches: contingent and impulse uncertainty, stochastic and tychastic uncertainty, the relations between them.
Luxi Chen +2 more
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This chapter deals with the various mathematical translation of the polysemous concepts of uncertainty and proposes some heterodox approaches: contingent and impulse uncertainty, stochastic and tychastic uncertainty, the relations between them.
Luxi Chen +2 more
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Communications of the ACM, 2019
Considering how to best navigate stability and randomness.
Peter J. Denning, Ted G. Lewis
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Considering how to best navigate stability and randomness.
Peter J. Denning, Ted G. Lewis
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Cognition, 1982 Abstract In contrast to formal theories of judgement and decision, which employ a single notion of probability, psychological analyses of responses to uncertainty reveal a wide variety of processes and experiences, which may follow different rules. Elementary forms of expectation and surprise in perception are reviewed. A phenomenological analysis is
Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman
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The uncertainty tree: Reducing the uncertainty of uncertainty analysis
Review of Scientific Instruments, 2002Uncertainty analysis is an integral aspect of experimental measurements, though accurately assessing the flow of uncertainty in a measurement system—particularly for complicated systems with more than a few variables—can become a challenging, error-prone task, while being less enjoyable than it should be.
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2012
‘To teach how to live without certainty, and yet without being paralysed by hesitation, is perhaps the chief thing that philosophy, in our age, can still do for those who study it’ (Russell, 1946, p. 14).
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‘To teach how to live without certainty, and yet without being paralysed by hesitation, is perhaps the chief thing that philosophy, in our age, can still do for those who study it’ (Russell, 1946, p. 14).
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