Results 71 to 80 of about 178,733 (302)
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This study investigates the predictive power of the term spread for forecasting economic activity across both conventional and unconventional monetary policy regimes. Utilizing data from 22 OECD countries spanning the period from 1985Q1 to 2024Q2, the analysis reveals that the term spread generally maintains its ability to predict GDP growth ...
Petri Kuosmanen, Juuso Vataja
wiley +1 more source
Argomenti: Rivista di Economia, Cultura e Ricerca SocialeThis paper utilizes a Structural Vector Autoregressive model (SVAR) to explore the intricacies of monetary policy and inflation dynamics in the Eurozone.
Georgios Garafas
doaj +1 more source
The Impact of Uncertainty on Forecasting the US Economy
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper examines the predictive value of uncertainty measures for key macroeconomic indicators across multiple forecast horizons. We evaluate how different uncertainty proxies—economic policy uncertainty (EPU), VIX, geopolitical risk, and measures of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty—enhance forecast accuracy for industrial production,
Angelica Ghiselli
wiley +1 more source
Mortgage Pricing and Monetary Policy
Social Science Research NetworkThis paper examines how central bank policies influence mortgage pricing in the United Kingdom. It shows that lenders price discriminate by offering two-part tariffs of interest rates and origination fees, and during unconventional monetary policies like
M. Benetton, A. Gavazza, P. Surico
semanticscholar +1 more source
Trade Credit and the Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy
Social Science Research Network, 2020 We show that production networks are important for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Firms with bonds eligible for purchase under the European Central Bank’s Corporate Sector Purchase Program act as financial intermediaries by ...
Manuel Adelino +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Euro area house prices and unconventional monetary policy surprises
Economics Letters, 2021 This paper examines the reaction of house prices in a panel of euro area countries to monetary policy surprises over the period 2010–2019. Using Jorda’s (2005) local projection method, we find that real house prices rise in response to expansionary ...
Oliver Hülsewig, H. Rottmann
semanticscholar +1 more source
Point and Risk estImation Using an enSemble of Models for Nowcasting: PRISM‐Now
Journal of Forecasting, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We propose PRISM‐Now, a novel ensemble forecasting system for near‐term GDP projection. Recognizing that relevant economic information evolves over time, we treat forecasts from multiple base models as draws from a mixture distribution of “good” and “bad” estimates, whose composition changes continuously and cannot be identified ex ante.
Beomseok Seo, Hyungbae Cho, Dongjae Lee
wiley +1 more source
CONSIDERATIONS ON THE UNCONVENTIONAL MONETARY POLICY IN CENTRAL AND EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES [PDF]
Analele Universităţii Constantin Brâncuşi din Târgu Jiu : Seria Economie, 2019 Over more than a decade after the outbreak of the recent financial crisis, we can say that its effects are still visible in the economic world. In order to overcome this crisis, central banks had to rethink the interaction between the financial economy
MĂRGĂRIT MONICA-IONELIA
doaj
Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S.
, 2021 We study unconventional policy shocks and information shocks associated with central bank announcements in the U.S. While unconventional policy shocks capture the direct influence of announced monetary policy actions, information shocks are associated ...
Max Breitenlechner +2 more
semanticscholar +1 more source