Results 241 to 250 of about 13,431,507 (393)

DSGE Model Forecasting: Rational Expectations Versus Adaptive Learning

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT This paper compares within‐sample and out‐of‐sample fit of a DSGE model with rational expectations to a model with adaptive learning. The Galí, Smets, and Wouters model is the chosen laboratory using quarterly real‐time euro area data vintages, covering 2001Q1–2019Q4.
Anders Warne
wiley   +1 more source

Forecasting With Dynamic Factor Models Estimated by Partial Least Squares

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Dynamic factor models (DFMs) have found great success in nowcasting and short‐term macroeconomic forecasting when incorporating large sets of predictive information. The factor loadings are typically estimated cross‐sectionally with principal component analysis (PCA) or maximum likelihood (ML), which ignore whether the factors have predictive ...
Samuel Rauhala
wiley   +1 more source

Point and Risk estImation Using an enSemble of Models for Nowcasting: PRISM‐Now

open access: yesJournal of Forecasting, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT We propose PRISM‐Now, a novel ensemble forecasting system for near‐term GDP projection. Recognizing that relevant economic information evolves over time, we treat forecasts from multiple base models as draws from a mixture distribution of “good” and “bad” estimates, whose composition changes continuously and cannot be identified ex ante.
Beomseok Seo, Hyungbae Cho, Dongjae Lee
wiley   +1 more source

Unintended Consequences of Life‐Saving Pharmaceutical Innovations: How HAART Led to the Resurgence of Syphilis

open access: yesHealth Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Syphilis, a sexually transmitted infection that can lead to serious health complications, was almost eliminated in the United States by 2000. But since then, its incidence began to increase, recently reaching a 60‐year peak. We suggest that the introduction of the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) drug regimen, which transformed HIV
David Beheshti   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Domestic and International Health Expenditure and Health and Healthcare Use: Evidence From Mozambique

open access: yesHealth Economics, EarlyView.
ABSTRACT Evidence on the relationship between public health expenditure and health is mixed and particularly scarce for low‐income countries. Existing studies overlook the subnational distribution of expenditure and rarely distinguish between sources and governance over funding.
Eliana Chavarría‐Pino   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

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