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Asymmetric cycles in unobserved components models [PDF]
A class of structural time series models with an asymmetric cyclical component is presented and used in order to test for asymmetry in economic time series. The asymmetric cycle is defined as a sine-cosine wave where the frequency of the cycle depends on past observations of the stochastic process being modelled.
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Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models
2020Quelle est l’incidence variable dans le temps des cycles économiques sur les décisions d’investir dans le capital humain?
Sadaba, Barbara +2 more
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State Space and Unobserved Component Models
2004This 2004 volume offers a broad overview of developments in the theory and applications of state space modeling. With fourteen chapters from twenty-three contributors, it offers a unique synthesis of state space methods and unobserved component models that are important in a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, environmental science ...
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Estimating an Unobserved Component of a Serial Response Time Model
Psychometrika, 1979A method is developed for estimating the response time distribution of an unobserved component in a two-component serial model, assuming the components are stochastically independent. The estimate of the component’s density function is constrained only to be unimodal and non-negative.
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An Unobserved Components Model to Forecast Austrian GDP [PDF]
This paper deals with forecasting quarterly Austrian GDP growth using monthly conjunctural indicators and state space models. The latter provide an efficient econometric framework to analyse jointly data with different frequencies. Based on a Kalman filter technique we estimate a monthly GDP growth series as an unobserved component using monthly ...
Gerhard Fenz, Martin Spitzer
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- NON-ADMISSIBILITY AND THE SPECIFICATION OF UNOBSERVED COMPONENTS MODELS [PDF]
We deal with the problem of decomposing a time series into the sum of unobserved components as in detrending or seasonal adjustment. In particular, we analyze the situation in which the decomposition into orthogonal balanced components as performed by the ARIMA-Model-Based method is non-admissible.
Gabriele Fiorentini, Christophe Planas
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Prediction, Extraction, and Estimation in Unobserved Components Models
Econometric Theory, 1987Francis X. Diebold, Marc Nerlove
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On the Efficiency of Unobserved Components Models
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 2004openaire +1 more source
An Unobserved Components Model that Yields Business and Medium‐Run Cycles
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2013Mark Wohar
exaly

