Results 121 to 130 of about 3,856 (236)
Taylor Rule Deviations Across Horizons: A Practical Tool for Monetary Policy
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView.Abstract We propose “Taylor rule yields” across horizons for the United States. Applying the standard Taylor rule to expected paths of inflation and the output gap, we construct a sequence of short‐term rates under neutral monetary policy stances, whose average defines the Taylor rule yield at each horizon.
MASAZUMI HATTORI +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Another Look at the (Ir)Relevance of Long‐Run Risks for Equity Risk Premia
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView.Abstract I investigate the empirical asset pricing implications of a three‐factor macro model that extends the baseline consumption model Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) by adding the innovations in expected long‐run consumption growth (consumption growth news) and expected long‐run consumption variance (variance news) as risk factors ...
PAULO MAIO
wiley +1 more source
Unconventional but Different After All? A Unified Series of Narrative Monetary Policy Shocksa
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, EarlyView.Abstract We construct a unified series of narrative monetary policy shocks for the United States that spans both conventional and unconventional policy episodes, combining Romer and Romer's identification with Wu and Xia's shadow rate. The methodological consistency across regimes allows us to formally test whether monetary policy transmission differs ...
DAVID BÜGEL +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Robust CDF‐Filtering of a Location Parameter
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT This paper introduces a novel framework for designing robust filters associated with signal plus noise models having symmetric observation density. The filters are obtained by a recursion where the innovation term is a transform of the cumulative distribution function of the residuals.
Leopoldo Catania +2 more
wiley +1 more source
Testing Distributional Granger Causality With Entropic Optimal Transport
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We develop a novel nonparametric test for Granger causality in distribution based on entropic optimal transport. Unlike classical mean‐based approaches, the proposed method directly compares the full conditional distributions of a response variable with and without the history of a candidate predictor.
Tao Wang
wiley +1 more source
The Accuracy Smoothness Dilemma in Prediction: A Novel Multivariate M‐SSA Forecast Approach
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Forecasting presents a complex estimation challenge, as it involves balancing multiple, often conflicting, priorities and objectives. Conventional forecast optimization methods typically emphasize a single metric, such as minimizing the mean squared error (MSE), which may neglect other crucial aspects of predictive performance. To address this
Marc Wildi
wiley +1 more source
Multiple Chains Markov Switching Vector Autoregression
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Both the U.S. stock and bond returns exhibit distinct Markovian regimes. However, because these regimes display limited coherence, conventional models typically require highly parameterized systems to adequately capture their joint distribution.
Leopoldo Catania
wiley +1 more source
Sparse Causal Dynamic Linear Regression
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We develop a sparse causal dynamic regression framework for long multivariate time series. With very long time series, the potentially large number of lags and leads in a dynamic regression model often makes time‐domain estimation numerically unstable or intractable.
Rui Huang, Kung‐Sik Chan
wiley +1 more source
Detecting Periodicity of a General Stationary Time Series via AR(2)‐Model Fitting
Journal of Time Series Analysis, EarlyView.ABSTRACT Estimating the periodicity of a stationary time series via fitting a second‐order stationary autoregressive (AR(2)) model has been initiated by the seminal paper of Yule (1927). We investigate properties of this procedure when applied to general stationary processes possessing a spectral density with a dominant peak at some unknown frequency ...
Jens‐Peter Kreiss +2 more
wiley +1 more source