Oil Futures Prices, Inflation Expectations, and Bond Risk Premiums
Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.ABSTRACT By decomposing West Texas Intermediate futures price changes into structural supply and demand shocks, this paper shows that dissecting the oil price significantly improves inflation forecasts. Empirically, demand‐driven shocks predict a negative real bond risk premium but a positive inflation risk premium; these opposing effects result in an ...
Haibo Jiang
wiley +1 more source
Volatility Spillover Between China’s Carbon Market and Traditional Manufacturing
MathematicsThis study constructed a DGC-t-MSV model by integrating dynamic correlation and Granger causality into the MSV framework. Using daily closing price data from 4 January 2022 to 21 November 2024, it empirically analyzed volatility spillover effects between
Jining Wang, Dian Sheng, Lei Wang
doaj +1 more source
The Volatility Spillover Effects and Optimal Hedging Strategy in the Corn Market [PDF]
This article examines the volatility spillovers from energy market to corn market. Using a volatility spillover model from the finance literature, we found significant spillovers from energy market to corn cash and futures markets, and the spillover ...
Guan, Zhengfei, Wu, Feng
core +1 more source
On the Comovement of Contango and Backwardation Across Futures Commodity Markets
Journal of Futures Markets, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We examine the time‐varying nature of the comovement of the slope of the futures curve in major agricultural, metals and energy commodity futures markets in a Global Vector Autoregressive model. We find significant comovement between the slopes, indicating the co‐existence of backwardation and contango in many seemingly unrelated commodity ...
Angelo Luisi +2 more
wiley +1 more source
The Impact of Democratization and Globalization on Environmental Sustainability in Brazil
Geological Journal, EarlyView.Fossil fuel, economic globalisation, and economic growth drive environmental degradation while democratisation positively influences environmental quality. ABSTRACT Although Brazil still possesses significant ecological reserves, the surplus in its biocapacity has been rapidly declining in recent years.
Mustafa Naimoğlu +3 more
wiley +1 more source
Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements [PDF]
In this paper we study risk-neutral densities (RNDs) for the German stock market. The use of option prices allows us to quantify the risk-neutral probabilities of various levels of the DAX index.
Glatzer, Ernst, Scheicher, Martin
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Sustainability Performance and Corporate Risk: Evidence From the Tourism Industry
International Journal of Finance &Economics, EarlyView.ABSTRACT We investigate the impact of sustainability performance (Refinitiv Environmental, Social, and Governance [ESG] scores) on corporate risk (CR). We apply stakeholder theory and the resource‐based view to an international sample of 247 tourism firms from 2002 to 2018.
Omneya Abdelsalam +4 more
wiley +1 more source
Volatility connectedness of GCC stock markets: how global oil price volatility drives volatility spillover in GCC stock markets? [PDF]
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2023 Hussain M, Rehman RU.
europepmc +1 more source
VOLATILITY AND SPILL OVER EFFECTS IN INDIAN COMMODITY MARKETS: A CASE OF PEPPER [PDF]
Modeling of volatility has been felt one of the major academic contributions in Indian commodity futures market. We have selected black pepper as a commodity for estimating volatility and its spillover incorporating a series of models.
Dey Kushankur, Maitra Debasish
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The volatility spillover from the market to disaggregated industry stocks: the case for the US and UK [PDF]
, 2009 This article empirically investigates the volatility spillover of stock returns from the market to disaggregated industry sectors. Seventeen sectors from the US and UK stock markets are estimated by the GARCH technique based on daily data from 1973 to ...
Moore, T
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