Results 41 to 50 of about 254,787 (196)

Implementation of an Adaptive Bias‐Aware Extended Kalman Filter for Sea‐Ice Data Assimilation in the HARMONIE‐AROME Numerical Weather Prediction System

open access: yesJournal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2021
Sea ice surface temperature is an important variable for short‐range numerical weather prediction systems operating in the Arctic. However, when provided by numerical sea ice models, this variable is seldomly constrained by the observations, thus ...
Yurii Batrak
doaj   +1 more source

Predicting Inflation: Professional Experts Versus No-Change Forecasts [PDF]

open access: yes, 2010
We compare forecasts of United States inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to predictions made by simple statistical techniques. In nowcasting, economic expertise is persuasive. When projecting beyond the current quarter, novel yet
Gneiting, Tilmann   +1 more
core  

Medium‐range global ensemble prediction system at 12 km horizontal resolution and its preliminary validation

open access: yesMeteorological Applications, 2020
Forecasts of high‐impact weather systems require sufficiently high resolution of state‐of‐the‐art numerical models in order to resolve the small‐scale features.
Ashu Mamgain   +2 more
doaj   +1 more source

The Braer storm revisited [PDF]

open access: yes, 2013
The Braer storm of January 1993 was the deepest ever recorded cyclone outside of the Tropics with a minimum core pressure of 914mbar, but due to its track between Scotland and Iceland it caused little damage and was never intensively examined.
Knippertz, P   +4 more
core   +1 more source

Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

open access: yes, 2012
Weather forecasts are approaching the physical limits of predictability. A prediction of a cyclone more than a week in advance, or a thunderstorm a few hours ahead, will have a large degree of uncertainty. New techniques using ensembles of forecasts to predict probabilities of weather events are being developed to increase the skill of weather ...
openaire   +2 more sources

Point process modeling of wildfire hazard in Los Angeles County, California

open access: yes, 2009
The Burning Index (BI) produced daily by the United States government's National Fire Danger Rating System is commonly used in forecasting the hazard of wildfire activity in the United States.
Schoenberg, Frederic Paik, Xu, Haiyong
core   +3 more sources

Can we reliably estimate precipitation with high resolution during disastrously large floods? [PDF]

open access: yesHydrology and Earth System Sciences
A huge and dangerous flood occurred in September 2024 in the upper and middle Odra River basin, including mountainous areas, in south-western Poland.
J. Szturc   +6 more
doaj   +1 more source

Unraveling the Mechanism of the Holes in the Blanket of Fog Over the Indo‐Gangetic Plains: Are They Driven by Urban Heat Islands or Aerosol?

open access: yesGeophysical Research Letters
Fog holes were reported over cities of the Indo‐Gangetic plains of India, which were attributed to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The present study reports the observational evidence of fog holes over rural area using satellite and ground ...
T. J. Anurose   +7 more
doaj   +1 more source

An explicit method of mesoscale convective storm prediction for the central region of Russia [PDF]

open access: yesAdvances in Science and Research, 2018
This work presents simulation results of the storm observed on the 13–14 July 2016 over the Central region of Russia. The Cumulonimbus cloud (Cb) electrification model coupled with the numerical weather prediction model WRF-ARW were used for this ...
I. M. Gubenko   +5 more
doaj   +1 more source

Developing a deep learning forecasting system for short-term and high-resolution prediction of sea ice concentration [PDF]

open access: yesThe Cryosphere
There has been a steady increase in marine activity throughout the Arctic Ocean during the last few decades, and maritime end users are requesting skilful high-resolution sea ice forecasts to ensure operational safety. Different studies have demonstrated
A. F. Kvanum   +6 more
doaj   +1 more source

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