Results 261 to 270 of about 705,465 (314)

Role of climate variability in the potential predictability of tropical cyclone formation in tropical and subtropical western North Pacific Ocean. [PDF]

Sci Rep, 2019
Chang YK, Miyazawa Y, Behera S.
europepmc   +1 more source

Predictability of North Pacific blocking events: Analogue‐based analysis of historical MIROC6 simulations

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The predictability of western and eastern North Pacific blocking events is assessed using analogue‐based diagnostics. Eastern blocks exhibit lower predictability, characterized by faster error growth and higher mean logarithmic divergence rates. The study highlights geographical contrasts in blocking stability.
Anupama K. Xavier, Oisín Hamilton, Davide Faranda, Stéphane Vannitsem   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Philippines-Taiwan Oscillations and its connection to tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific Ocean. [PDF]

Sci Rep, 2018
Chang YK, Miyazawa Y, Kodaira T, Behera S.   +3 more
europepmc   +1 more source

Using a causal effect network approach to quantify the impact of ENSO teleconnections on summer monsoon precipitation over the Himalayas and key regional circulations

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
We quantified the causal effect (CE) of linkages between four monthly climate indices ENSO, SMHP, RWC, and MHC for 1940–2022 with a time lag of one month. The results show CE values from (1) ENSO to SMHP of −0.33$$ -0.33 $$ to −0.44$$ -0.44 $$ (i.e., a one standard deviation (SD) increase in ENSO causes a decrease in SMHP of −0.33$$ -0.33 $$ to −0.44$$
Grzegorz Muszynski, Andrew Orr, Indrani Roy, Giorgia Di Capua, Hamish D. Pritchard, J. Scott Hosking   +5 more
wiley   +1 more source

Mesoscale and microphysical processes leading to extreme hourly rainfall prior to the merger of two mesoscale convective systems in Central China

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
Short‐term extreme rainfall can be produced by the variation of low‐level warm moist airflow during mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) approaching another. The cold outflow of the rapidly moving MCS intensifies the warm moist airflow in front, enhancing the convergence and ascending motion in the quasi‐stationary MCS.
Xiaoyu Gao, Yali Luo, Jinfang Yin, Chong Wu   +3 more
wiley   +1 more source

Exceptionally poor and good medium‐range forecasts of the large‐scale circulation over Europe in ERA5 reforecasts

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
This study investigates year‐round exceptionally poor and good day‐6 forecasts of the 500‐hPa geopotential height field over Europe using 45 years of ERA5 reforecasts and applies a weather regime perspective to analyse large‐scale pattern evolution and regime transitions.
Seraphine Hauser, Steven M. Cavallo, Linus Magnusson, Jonathan E. Martin, David B. Parsons   +4 more
wiley   +1 more source

Does vertical wind shear increase tropical cyclone rain?

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
A 26‐year modern precipitation dataset is used to systematically assess tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall responses to vertical wind shear (VWS). VWS enhances rainfall volume in TCs by up to 23%, despite reducing storm intensity, revealing a trade‐off where VWS mitigates wind damage but potentially amplifies flood risk.
King Heng Lau, Ralf Toumi
wiley   +1 more source

Performance evaluation of regional weather predictions with the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS‐A) over the Maritime Continent

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
As part of the ongoing efforts to develop next‐generation forecasting systems at the Meteorological Service Singapore, this study presents the setup and evaluation of the SINGV_NG(MPAS) system. Overall, the SINGV_NG(MPAS) system outperforms European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) deterministic forecasts in capturing heavy rainfall ...
I‐Han Chen, Pratiman Patel, Kalli Furtado, Wei Wang, Zhiquan Liu, Dale Barker, Jimy Dudhia, Hugh Zhang   +7 more
wiley   +1 more source

Moisture and wind effects of Rossby waves on Western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone breakdown events

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
(a) Organized convection: clouds are clustered at the southern edge of the domain, aligning with the warmest SST. Northeasterly winds prevail, facilitating convection confinement to the southern part of the domain. (b) ITCZ breakdown: the clouds are spread throughout the domain.
Alejandro Casallas, Adrian Mark Tompkins, Caroline Muller   +2 more
wiley   +1 more source

Indian and African monsoons: Trajectories and interactions

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, EarlyView.
The catch basin of marine air particles of the Indian monsoon is the tropical Indian ocean, whilst that of the African monsoon is the east tropical Atlantic. However, the oscillations induced by the monsoonal interactions favour particle exchange between the two basins. These transitions are abrupt in the presence of stochastic resonance. The monsoonal
Giovanni A. Dalu, Marina Baldi
wiley   +1 more source