Wisdom of Crowds and Commodity Pricing
Journal of Futures Markets, 2023 AbstractWe extract commodity‐level sentiment from the Twittersphere in 2009–2020. A long–short strategy based on sentiment shifts more than doubles the Sharpe ratio of extant commodity factors. Commodities with lower (higher) sentiment shifts tend to be overvalued (undervalued) when the aggregate market is in backwardation (contango).
J. H. Fan +2 more
semanticscholar +2 more sources
‘The wisdom of crowds’: a survey on the rating of nutritional values of meals in digital pictures [PDF]
BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & HealthBackground Photo-based nutrition diaries might be useful to assess dietary intake without much effort and maybe even without nutrition expertise. This proof-of-concept study aimed to investigate the principle of ‘the wisdom of crowds’ by examining how ...
Hans Hauner +9 more
doaj +2 more sources
An ensemble method utilising multiple thinking styles that boosts the wisdom-of-inner-crowd effect [PDF]
Scientific ReportsPrevious studies have demonstrated that individuals can utilize the wisdom of crowds, known as ‘the wisdom of the inner crowd’. This requires answering the same question multiple times and averaging the estimates.
Itsuki Fujisaki +4 more
doaj +2 more sources
A scoping review of crowdsourcing and collective intelligence in oral healthcare [PDF]
BMC Oral HealthObjective Diagnostic and treatment errors are detrimental yet relatively common in primary healthcare settings. Crowdsourcing and collective intelligence (CI) in the form of peers’ opinion and group decision-making can lead to modifications in diagnosis ...
Rodrigo J Mariño +4 more
doaj +2 more sources
Conventional and frugal methods of estimating COVID-19-related excess deaths and undercount factors [PDF]
Scientific ReportsAcross the world, the officially reported number of COVID-19 deaths is likely an undercount. Establishing true mortality is key to improving data transparency and strengthening public health systems to tackle future disease outbreaks.
Abhishek M. Dedhe +20 more
doaj +2 more sources
Towards Open-Set Test-Time Adaptation Utilizing the Wisdom of Crowds in Entropy Minimization [PDF]
IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision, 2023 Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods, which generally rely on the model’s predictions (e.g., entropy minimization) to adapt the source pretrained model to the unlabeled target domain, suffer from noisy signals originating from 1) incorrect or 2) open-set ...
Jungsoo Lee +3 more
semanticscholar +1 more source
Forecasting elections with mere recognition from small, lousy samples: A comparison of collective recognition, wisdom of crowds, and representative polls [PDF]
Judgment and Decision Making, 2011 We investigated the extent to which the human capacity for recognition helps to forecast political elections: We compared naive recognition-based election forecasts computed from convenience samples of citizens' recognition of party names to (i) standard
Wolfgang Gaissmeier, Julian N. Marewski
doaj +3 more sources
Counteracting estimation bias and social influence to improve the wisdom of crowds. [PDF]
J R Soc Interface, 2018 Kao AB +7 more
europepmc +2 more sources
The wisdom of polarized crowds [PDF]
Nature Human Behaviour, 2019 As political polarization in the United States continues to rise, the question of whether polarized individuals can fruitfully cooperate becomes pressing. Although diversity of individual perspectives typically leads to superior team performance on complex tasks, strong political perspectives have been associated with conflict, misinformation and a ...
Feng Shi +3 more
openaire +4 more sources