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A Joint Probability Density Function for Reducing the Uncertainty of Marginal Social Cost of Carbon Evaluation in Transport Planning

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Computer-based Modelling and Optimization in Transportation

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 262))

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Abstract

This chapter aims at defining a fair value for the Marginal Social Cost of Carbon (MSCC) to be used within transport planning, briefly discussing how it is influenced by economic and scientific uncertainty, with the scope of helping researchers, stakeholders and decision makers to choose among the current range of values of four orders of magnitude provided from the scientific literature. The method here proposed estimates a joint probability density function for MSCC using a database of almost 600 available estimates, and then defines a subsample of 80 to be used for the evaluation of transport planning policies and projects, so that the variability of MSCC decreases significantly to a single order of magnitude.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    MSCC is also defined as “Marginal Climate Change Damage Cost” or “Social cost of Carbon” [16].

  2. 2.

    The database on the marginal damage costs of CO2 emissions can be found at: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/Users/rt220/marginaldamagecost.xlsx.

  3. 3.

    Scientific literature reasons substances emitted in tonnes of carbon (tC) or tonnes of carbon-dioxide (tCO2) generally, the equivalence relation 1tC=3.664 tCO2 [37] holds.

  4. 4.

    Only some of the total cost estimates have been used for estimating the marginal social cost of carbon (such as [29], [30], [32], [34]).

  5. 5.

    The PRTP is the rate at which time is discounted, it is also defined as the “Rate of Impatience”: people would prefer consume now than in the future [42].

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. IUAV University of Venice, Santa Croce 191 Tolentini, 30135, Venice, Italy

    Silvio Nocera & Stefania Tonin

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  1. Silvio Nocera
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  2. Stefania Tonin
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Correspondence to Silvio Nocera .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. UGEI-INESC TEC, Faculty of Engineering, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal

    Jorge Freire de Sousa

  2. Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Padova, Padova, Italy

    Riccardo Rossi

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Nocera, S., Tonin, S. (2014). A Joint Probability Density Function for Reducing the Uncertainty of Marginal Social Cost of Carbon Evaluation in Transport Planning. In: de Sousa, J., Rossi, R. (eds) Computer-based Modelling and Optimization in Transportation. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 262. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-04630-3_9

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